Fulham vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Fulham Odds | +110 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -159 / +118 |
There's nothing that says late-season Premier League like 13th-placed Fulham hosting 14th-placed Crystal Palace in a London derby with four matches to play and both mathematically safe from relegation. European qualification is all but out of the picture, so these two sides aren't playing for much more than pride and possibly delivering their fans a couple moments of joy before the summer intermission.
Having said that, Oliver Glasner, who took over at Palace in February, will certainly want to use these last fixtures to get his players as comfortable with his game model as possible. And for both coaches it's always nice to finish on a high note and then build off a strong run-in heading into next year.
The last meeting between these two teams finished in a scoreless draw, but with Roy Hodgson on the touchline for the Eagles, not much can be gleaned from that contest heading into this one.
Read on for my Fulham vs Crystal Palace pick and prediction and Premier League match preview.
Fulham
Despite losing Aleksandar Mitrovic — and nearly Joao Palhinha as well — in the summer, Marco Silva's Fulham avoided a case of second-season syndrome pretty comfortably. Finishing with 50-plus points in the top-half like last year might be unlikely, but it could be worse. The Cottagers have had a strange last two months as well, finding wins against Manchester United, Brighton, Tottenham and West Ham but then failing to beat either Sheffield United or Nottingham Forest.
Fulham are one of the better-coached teams in the league, currently ranked ninth in Field Tilt and hovering around the median in xThreat for and against. This starts with their solidity out of possession. The Cottagers line up in a base 4-3-3 shape, but that can morph into a lot of different forms depending on what the opponent does, and against Palace, that 4-3-3 will be asymmetric, looking like a 4-4-2 at times. Structure is just part of the battle though, and what really makes Fulham so sound defensively is how they block forward passing lanes and protect "jumps" — when a player goes to close down the ball, leaving space behind them. In possession, they're decent as well, but it's primarily been the defensive stability that they've hung their hat on this season.
Crystal Palace
Few teams are in better form than Crystal Palace right now. Glasner and co. have won their last three matches by an aggregate score of 8-2, including triumphs at Liverpool and at home against Newcastle. The Austrian's Premier League journey got off to a bit of a rocky start, but his players are executing his vision of football, and for those who watched his Eintracht Frankfurt teams, you'll see how quickly Palace have picked up that same style of play.
Everyone in a blue and red shirt is performing well at the moment, but Michael Olise and especially Eberechi Eze both deserve their own mentions, providing the creative spark in the half-spaces that's driving this team in possession. Jean-Philippe Mateta has been the biggest beneficiary of their play, netting back-to-back braces and leading the Eagles in goals since Glasner took over with eight.
The Eagles defend in a 5-2-3 block, and then push the wingbacks forward while narrowing the wingers to form a 3-2-5 in possession. The front three in this one is likely to be Mateta flanked by Olise and Eze, but Jordan Ayew is a possibility to start in place of Olise as well. The double pivot of Adam Wharton and Will Hughes has been stellar, with the former taking real command of the midfield recently despite being just 20-years-old and only joining the team in January. The way he understands tempo and angles is just remarkable, and combined with the movement of the forwards in front of him, that becomes a real problem for opponents.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
Fulham moneyline opened at +100 and is now sitting between +105 and +110, which is still too high. This type of game plays into Glasner's tactics perfectly, as his team will be able to sit off a bit away from home, focus on defensively rigidity and exploit turnovers in transition. I'd set the Cottagers' probability of victory at no higher than 40%, which makes Crystal Palace +0.5 at -130 — 56.5% implied probability — great value.
The Eagles might not win on the road, but they will continue their unbeaten run.
Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-130)
