Fulham vs Everton Odds
| Fulham Odds | +145 |
| Everton Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
Everton and Fulham will meet for the third time in all competitions on Tuesday in West London as part of the first full Premier League midweek slate of the 2024 calendar year. Fulham beat the Toffees, 1-0, in the opening matchweek of the league. The Cottagers then played to a 1-1 draw in the EFL Cup quarterfinal before Christmas, and then they won on penalties to advance to the semifinal.
They enter this match in shaky form with just two league goals in their last five matches in the PL. Fulham also were knocked out of the EFL Cup over two legs to Liverpool and lost their FA Cup match to Newcastle at the weekend. The lack of goal scoring for Fulham has become a real issue, even as the defense has held up decently well of late.
Everton also has just one win in eight matches in all competitions entering this fixture, and it came at home in the FA Cup against Crystal Palace. The goals have dried up for the Toffees, and as a result the total is too high for this matchup on Tuesday.
Read on for our Fulham vs Everton prediction.
Fulham
Fulham's ball progression numbers suggest that the attack should be right around league average. The Cottagers enter this match ranked 12th in box entries, ninth in final third entries and seventh in crosses completed. They have a functioning midfield that keeps a league average possession rate and can get the ball to the edge of the penalty area at a mid-table clip. Last year, Fulham finished ninth in the league in goals because they had Aleksandar Mitrovic. They sold him, didn't buy a replacement and now are relying on the aging Raul Jimenez to buoy the attack. With Alex Iwobi away on international duty as well, the Cottagers are short handed on shots per 90 and xG creation.
Jimenez is producing 2.5 shots per 90, 0.32 xG per 90 and that ranks amongst the worst starting strikers in the Premier League. Iwobi had produced 0.24 goals and 0.28 xG per match this year with his late arriving runs into the penalty area and it's clear they've missed his presence. No other regular player (minimum 10 90s) has given Fulham more than 0.15 xG per 90.
The Cottagers have showcased decent pressing numbers as a whole this year, but that's less important against a possession-averse side like Everton who aren't going to try to play through the midfield. The Toffees dominated both meetings between these two clubs in the underlying box score, but both were at Goodison Park.
Fulham have played 10 Premier League matches at Craven Cottage this season and conceded just 1.26 xGA in those matches on average. In two cup matches against Liverpool and Newcastle, the Cottagers held both under 1.2 xG as well. The defense prevents easy access into the penalty area and the defense is clearly trending up despite a tendency to allow a lot of big scoring chances.
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Everton
Everton's lacking depth seems to be taking its toll on the Toffees' performances right now. The squad played top six or seven level football for about six weeks, but the turning of the calendar and month of January has shown clear regression for the Toffees back into the mid-table but not close to relegation level team I expected entering the season.
The Toffees have done most of their attacking damage at home this year. When away from Goodison, Everton have produced just 1.1 xG per match in the league. The defense is still producing elite numbers when it comes to protecting the penalty area. No team has conceded fewer big scoring chances than Sean Dyche's side, and Everton have conceded the fourth-most non-penalty chances in the league.
In 180 minutes against this Fulham attack, the Cottagers managed one goal on a broken transition moment and one own goal from Everton. Given the stylistic matchup, it's fair to expect Fulham to have more of the possession and final third touches. But the inefficiency of the Fulham attack in the penalty area is a bad recipe for trying to create chances against the Toffees.
Everton's attack is slightly below league average for the season, but the trendline is downward. They rank 15th in xG in the last 10 league matches and the cup matches weren't encouraging offensively either.
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Fulham vs Everton
Prediction
I've looked to bet Fulham unders when they've been in the favored role this season and this is an ideal spot to fade the struggling attacking output. The market is underrating the absence of Iwobi, who is integral in making up for the lackluster striker and wide forward production in this attacking unit.
Everton's extreme anti-possession puts a cap on their attacking quality top end, and it hasn't translated to consistently creating chances away from home this year. I'd bet under 2.5 at -135 or better.
