Fulham vs Liverpool Predictions
| Fulham Odds | +333 |
| Liverpool Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -110 / -110 |
Liverpool's entire end of season is on the verge of unraveling in the last 10 days. The Reds' troubles began at Manchester United, where Liverpool created nearly four expected goals, yet a defensive lapse led to a 2-2 draw against their rival. Entering that match, Liverpool were the Premier League title favorite. Since then, the Reds suffered back to back home defeats to Atalanta and Crystal Palace. They've been knocked out of Europe and are now third favorites to win the league at +650 entering the weekend.
The Reds are in a stretch of four consecutive away matches, including three in the league. They needed late heroics to beat Fulham at Anfield back in December, scoring two goals in the final eight minutes to win 4-3. Fulham did an excellent job of keeping Liverpool out of their penalty area in the first matchup and the Reds' away splits leave them vulnerable for this away trip to Craven Cottage.
Read on for my Fulham vs Liverpool prediction in the latest Action Network Premier League match preview.
Fulham
The emergence of Rodrigo Muniz as a legitimate goalscoring option at striker for Fulham has propelled them into solid mid-table numbers. The Cottagers had their worst run of the season in late December and early January, but Muniz is getting 4.4 shots per 90 and has eight goals in the league since February began. The Cottagers really struggled to score for a long stretch because they were the least efficient team in the PL at turning final third entries into box entries. Now with Muniz as a solid striker option, Fulham are up to 16th in rank of turning final third entries into box entries.
The Cottagers attack as a whole is still heavily reliant on crossing. Fulham have completed the second most crosses into the penalty area and the clear weakness of Liverpool defensively is in wide areas. The Reds have been consistently exposed up the right side of their defense, and even with Trent Alexander-Arnold back fit, those issues will remain.
Now that they do have a striker, the rest of Fulham's attacking profile looks to be quite solid. The Cottagers are 10th in box entries, ninth in final third entries, 12th in xG created and 12th in shots per 9o. Given that Fulham had to replace Aleksander Mitrovic and that the league-wide scoring increased, it's notable that Fulham have maintained a similar underlying attacking level to last season.
Liverpool
Liverpool's second half against Atalanta on Thursday was rather lifeless in attack. Given the situation — Liverpool were down two goals on aggregate and had its best attackers out there — you have to wonder if fatigue is creeping in for the Reds. The fixtures continue to pile up, and Liverpool created almost no scoring chances in the final hour in Bergamo.
Atalanta outshot Liverpool 7-2 in the second half and when you consider their second half performance against Atalanta in the first leg and their scoreless second half against Crystal Palace, you start to wonder if Liverpool will continue to reach peak energy levels for the rest of the season. The Reds were carved open consistently by Atalanta and Palace on home soil, and their defense has been a bit of a liability away from Anfield this year.
The Reds have conceded 22.3 xG in 15 away matches this year, which is nearly 1.5 per match. Of the three title contenders with lofty power ratings, Liverpool's numbers are third by a considerable margin.
Fulham vs Liverpool
Prediction
Liverpool have been snakebitten by poor finishing in this recent run of bad results. In the last four matches alone, Liverpool produced 3.7 xG vs. Manchester United, 2.6 against Atalanta, 2.9 against Palace and then 1.6 against Atalanta. If the Reds continue to produce like that, the goals will certainly be coming for Jurgen Klopp's side.
The questions I have about Liverpool are the defense away from Anfield, the energy levels in their fifth match in 14 days and Fulham's high energy out of possession style being able to keep Liverpool from effectively dominating this match enough to get margin.
The Reds are more likely to drop points than they are to win by multiple goals in my view, so I'd bet Fulham +1 at -110 or better.
Pick: Fulham +1 (+100)
