Fulham vs Man City Odds
| Fulham Odds | +1600 |
| Man City Odds | -600 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300 / +240 |
Manchester City looks to take one step closer to the Premier League title when they travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham.
Fulham is safe and secure from relegation and has no shot of getting into the top half of the table, so at this point they are just playing for pride and potentially play spoiler. They have performed really well at home against some of the top teams in the league, so this will not be a breeze for Manchester City.
It's pretty simple for Manchester City, if they win out, they win the Premier League title. Arsenal has a six-goal advantage in terms of goal difference, so if they drop points in their final three matches, they leave the door open for the Gunners to snatch the Premier League title.
They are coming off a 5-1 beatdown of Wolves, but some of their performances recently leave a lot to be desired so, they could potentially trip up on Saturday against Fulham.
Fulham
Fulham has been pretty good over the second half of the season because manager Marco Silva has given them freedom and tactical flexibility to play more on the front foot. And they still stay true their identity of playing a solid low defensive block while countering from deep.
When these teams met at the Etihad earlier in the season, the final scoreline does not tell you how good Fulham was for most of the match.
City ended up winning 5-1, scoring those five goals off of 2.2 expected, which included one penalty, so they really scored five goals from open play off of 1.5 expected. They were only able to get off five shots from open play and one off of a set piece — that was it. Pep Guardiola was obsessed with playing through the center against Fulham’s low block and the Cottagers did a fantastic job of not letting City do that.
Fulham just proved their ability to defend in a low block recently at home, holding Liverpool to one expected goal and 27 touches in their penalty area.
This time around, Fulham has a much better striker — that is in fantastic form — in Rodrigo Muniz, who has 0.50 xG per 90 minutes and is averaging over four shots per 90.
Man City
Fulham scored in that first match by taking advantage of a weakness from City that has prevalent all season and one they are well overdue to be exposed for — defending set pieces. City has only allowed two goals off of set pieces, but have conceded close to six expected off of them and are in the bottom half of the Premier League in xG per set piece.
The problems for City defending in transition are still there and if you look at how teams recently have scored or created chances against them, it’s via crosses — Real Madrid did it, Nottingham Forest did it and Fulham can do the same.
Fulham, since the beginning of February, are averaging 1.67 xG per 90 minutes and are still the team that likes to attack in wide areas to send in crosses. Manchester City has allowed the 10th-highest percentage of crosses into their penalty area, so Fulham could nick a goal off a cross.
Manchester City has also been on a crazy positive variance run over their past three matches. They beat Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves by a combined score of 11-1, but the expected goals in those three matches has been 6.0 to 2.8 — if we remove the two penalties they were awarded, it’s only 4.4 to 2.8.
Fulham vs Man City
Prediction
Once again, we are getting an inflated price on Manchester City because they have to win to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Fulham doesn’t really have anything to play for.
Fulham looked pretty good in their previous match on the road at Brentford, outplaying them for a majority of the match and winning the xG battle 1.3 to 0.6.
There has been a pretty drastic difference between Fulham playing at Craven Cottage versus on the road. At home this season, they have a +3.2 xGD vs. a -11.3 xGD on the road. Plus, they only have a -0.7 xGD against the Big Six at home and have pulled off upsets over both Arsenal and Tottenham.
I only have Manchester City’s spread projected at -1.1, so I love the value on Fulham +2 at -121.
