Fulham vs Man United Odds
| Fulham Odds | +230 |
| Man United Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Marco Silva and this Fulham side will be hosting Erik Ten Hag and Manchester United this Saturday at Craven Cottage in London. Both sides will be looking to change their trajectory in the Premier League this season.
Fulham currently sit 14th in the league with three wins, three draws and four losses. They are coming off a good point in their 1-1 draw against Brighton in their last league match and then a good 3-1 win in the Carabao Cup against Ipswich. They will look to keep this momentum going against a struggling Man United.
It just keeps getting worse for United fans. They sit eighth in the Premier League after 10 matches and are coming off back-to-back 3-0 losses at the hands of Man City and Newcastle. They need to improve as soon as possible, or they will be looking to replace yet another manager.
Let’s get into my Fulham vs Man United prediction ahead of their Premier League match.
Fulham
Fulham have definitely regressed this season in most facets of the game. They are 18th in the league in xG, 15th in xGA and have conceded the fifth-most shots on target. Their savior this season has actually been Bernd Leno, despite conceding 16 goals.
Leno has saved 2.2 PSxG in the first 10 matches, good enough for fourth-highest in the league. He single-handedly won the match for Fulham against Everton and without him, Fulham could be flirting with relegation.
A big issue with Fulham up to this point is that they have struggle to create any sort of threat in front of goal. This is partly due to the loss of Mitrovic to the Saudi Pro League and replacing him with Raúl Jiménez, who has underperformed his xG by 1.1, the most in this side.
Since the beginning of last season, Fulham have been a formidable side at Craven Cottage. They have played 23 matches at home in the past 16 months having scored 35 and conceded 35. However, they have only created 4.7 xG in their four matches at home so far, the second-lowest number in the league.
Defensively, they have been much more effective at home rather than away from Craven Cottage. They have only conceded 7.0 xGA at home, which is just below mid-table in the league. These statistics are very encouraging, especially in this match against a side who has struggled mightily away from home.
Man United
Manchester United have suffered their worst start to a season in recent memory. Some of the matches they have played would not have been anywhere near acceptable under Sir Alex.
They have won five and lost five of their first 10 matches but have not put together a single dominant performance. They have not been good in possession, not been good out of possession and have been shaky defensively. Whether the problem lies with the players or with Ten Hag has yet to be seen, but they need to gain some momentum or he will be out before we know it.
The underlying metrics away from Old Trafford have been shocking. They have picked up six points from four away matches, which does not sound too bad, but they have only mustered 5.0 xG in those four matches. That is the third-lowest in the league, which for a team that has spent as much as United have is unacceptable.
For all the criticism Onana has gotten, he has actually saved 0.9 goals according to his PSxG +/-. The area that has left them down massively is their finishing. They have underperformed their xG by 3.7 goals, the third-most in the league, only ahead of Chelsea and Everton.
They should be due for some positive regression at some point, but relying on your luck to change is a dangerous game for someone like Ten Hag, who can be out of a job with a couple more poor losses.
Fulham vs Man United
Prediction
The only way that I see Fulham getting a result here is if they keep United at bay going forward, which has not been a problem for most sides at home against United.
Fulham have been an average side defensively at home, and Manchester United have surprisingly been good defensively in their matches away from Old Trafford, only conceding 6.5 xGA.
Due to this, I will be playing under 2.5 goals in this one which is plus money on most books. I not only like this spot for both these sides, but I also see value as my model has the under at -120.
I could also see Fulham getting a result here, whether it be 1-1 or 1-0. I could see it getting much worse for United before it gets any better.
