Fulham vs Wolves Odds
| Fulham Odds | +137 |
| Wolves Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +107 / -138 |
Fulham and Wolves meet for a bottom half of the table clash on Monday Night Football.
The Cottagers have gotten the results they need, beating Luton Town, Sheffield United and Everton to keep them out of the relegation fight, but they are struggling for good form at the moment. They've hit the difficult point of their schedule, picking up just one point in their last four matches. Three points on Monday would be vital.
Wolves are flying under Gary O'Neill at the moment, coming off a late upset win over Tottenham to push them up to 12th place in the table. O'Neill's Wolves have been incredibly successful at adapting tactically to different situations while also being clinical in transition moments. They are looking like a top half of the table club at the moment and three points at Craven Cottage would go a long way to achieving that.
Read on for my Fulham vs Wolves prediction.
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Fulham
Fulham’s offense is really struggling at the moment and there doesn’t seem to be a fix for it. They had to start Raul Jimenez up top again when they were already down 3-0 to Aston Villa.
However, the biggest problem that Fulham are running into is when they are out of possession, they are playing incredibly narrow to prevent teams from playing through the center of their low block, which they have been successful with at times. But, when they win the ball, they do not have the personnel to build up through the center of the pitch or even outlets to be able to play the ball into wide areas. Bobby Reid is the only player for Fulham right now that is over a 0.30 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.
Fulham used to be a team with a distinct identity. That was to get the ball into wide areas and swing in crosses to Aleksander Mitrovic, but now that he’s gone Marco Silva seems lost on how to set his team up to consistently create chances.
There is also the issue that Fulham are terrible when they try to build out of the back. Time and time again this season they have turned the ball over in their own end of the pitch trying to build up instead of sending the ball long and they’ve been punished for it.
The other problem for Fulham is that they are going to be without their best player, Joao Palhinha, who is out due to yellow card suspension. He is massive in terms of their ball stopping in the middle of the pitch when Wolves get going in their transition attacks. He has 69 tackles + interceptions this season. Nobody else in the midfield has more than 15. Not to mention, he is also tied as their leading goal scorer with two goals.
Wolves
The job that O’Neill has done at Wolves has been nothing short of tremendous. You will not find a team that works harder off the ball than Wolves right now. O’Neill has them set up to press out of a mid-block and their pressing numbers are around the Premier League average, but they lead the Premier League in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and they have been incredibly successful winning ground duels in the middle of the pitch.
What is even more amazing about this turnaround from Wolves is that they lost Ruben Neves, Matheus Nunes and Joao Moutinho. That's essentially their entire midfield since they got promoted back into the Premier League, and you could make the argument that their center midfield has been better than it was last year in terms of ball winning.
Joao Gomes and Mario Lemina combined are averaging over eight tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes. Last season, Neves was really the only effective ball winner in the middle of the pitch.
There is a chance that Pedro Neto plays on Monday, which would be huge, but even if he doesn’t play, Hee Chan Hwang has been amazing this season, scoring six goals and putting up a 0.54 xG + xA per 90 minutes scoring rate.
Fulham vs Wolves
Prediction
O'Neill has Wolves pointed in the right direction with a good, flexible tactical plan that is very similar to that of Brentford. Being able to defend in a low block and play in transition is crucial for a team in the bottom half of the table, but Wolves' ability to come out and press high against an opponent like Fulham has been crucial for them in getting results.
I am not sure what the tactical plan right now is for Silva. They are clearly missing Mitrovic and haven't really found another consistent avenue to attack outside of swinging in crosses, which they haven't been able to do successfully.
With Fulham down Palhinha and given how terrible this offense has been, I don’t think they should be favored in this match, even if they are at home.
