Galatasaray vs Man United Odds
| Galatasaray Odds | +162 |
| Man United Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
The pivotal swing match in Group A of the Champions League takes place in the early time slot on Wednesday as Man United travels to Turkey to face Galatasaray. The Red Devils squandered leads in their home match against Galatasaray and against Copenhagen in their last match to leave them sitting fourth in Group A with two matches to go. They have just three points from four matches, and while their league form has improved in the last month under Erik ten Hag, there's plenty of pressure on him to advance out of this Champions League group.
A win on Wednesday would likely move United into second place, as current second place Copenhagen travels to group winners Bayern Munich later on Wednesday. United will be quite shorthanded though due to both injury and suspension, which could make goal scoring difficult. Marcus Rashford is suspended following his red card in the last match. There's a total of eight first team players missing for ten Hag, and that makes United once again vulnerable in this match.
Here is my Galatasaray vs Man United prediction.
Galatasaray
Galatasaray have two key injuries to monitor in this match, both to center backs. Defending has been the primary issue for Galatasaray in this competition, especially in transition. The reports out of Turkey on Tuesday suggest that both Davinson Sanchez and Abdülkerim Bardakci will both be available to start for Okan Buruk on Wednesday.
Bardakci ranks in the top five in the Champions League group stage in interceptions and number of dribblers tackled. He's the aggressive half of the CB pairing and will likely be tasked with slowing down the runs of Rasmus Hojlund, if he starts.
Willfried Zaha's matchup on the wing with Aaron Wan-Bissaka will be a key one to watch in this match as well. Wan-Bissaka is the best one-on-one defender at the club, and his ability to stop Zaha's constant ball progression will be a key to United preventing a ton of crosses and dribbles into the penalty area. No player had more attacking third touches in the reverse fixture than Zaha.
Mauro Icardi has had major troubles with finishing thus far in the Champions League, but his underlying shot production has been quite encouraging. He has just two goals from 3.9 xG, but he's north of 1.00 xG per 90 and even if you exclude penalties, the Argentinian forward is getting four shots per match in CL play.
If Icardi keeps getting into these plus scoring positions, the goals are coming.
Man United
Manchester United did get some good news in the injury report, as Rasmus Hojlund is in the traveling squad for this match. That doesn't mean he'll start, but it should be expected that he'll return in some capacity from injury. Alejandro Garnacho scored the best goal of the season with his bicycle kick against Everton in the fourth minute on Sunday, but that incredible highlight masked a very mediocre performance from the Red Devils overall.
United managed just two shots and 0.04 xG in the first half at Everton, compared to 1.15 xG for the Toffees. Everton finished the match with 2.4 xGF, and only elite shot stopping from Andre Onana and poor finishing from Everton enabled them to keep a clean sheet. The resounding 3-0 win looks great on the scoresheet, but the underlying process stats show that there's still a ton of flaws for this squad right now.
The Toffees managed 26 penalty area touches to just 17 for the Red Devils. Game state plays a small factor in this because United went up so early, but Everton tripled up United on total shots as well.
United's winger duo of Garnacho and Antony has underwhelmed considerably this season. The club hasn't gotten normal Rashford production, but Rashford is still the best winger option and his absence limits their ability to hit Galatasaray on the break, where they can be quite vulnerable defensively.
Galatasaray vs Man United
Prediction
Through four matches in this group, Manchester United and Galatasaray have basically the exact same expected goal difference. I had little difference between these two teams in my numbers entering the group stage and still don't see much to separate them. Given that United is shorthanded and on the road, the price should be shaded toward Galatasaray as a small home favorite.
The Turkish side dominated both Copenhagen and Bayern Munich in the first halves of both of its home matches in this group stage and should get plenty of chances in behind in this matchup too.
