Georgia vs Czech Republic Preview | Euro 2024 Picks & Predictions

Saturday, June 22

9 a.m. ET

Fubo

Georgia Odds	+375
Czech Republic Odds	-134
Draw	+270
Over / Under	2.5  +100 / -125

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Georgia and the Czech Republic meet in a must win match for both if they want to make it to the knockout stage.

Georgia put up a valiant effort on Tuesday, losing 3-1 to Turkey, but they were incredibly brave despite clearly lacking the talent compared to their opponent. With a match against Portugal looming in the final match of the group stage, they need to win this match to have any chance of qualifying.

The Czechs put in a valiant effort on Tuesday against Portugal losing in the dying stages of the match. This will be a much different type of match for them and one that suits them really well. With the way this tournament is setting up, three points may end up being enough to make to the knockout stage, so this is a must win match.

Let's dive into my Georgia vs Czech Republic preview.

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Georgia

Georgia came out in a completely different set up against Turkey than they did in qualifying. During qualifying, they were the most passive team in the Euro field, but they came out very aggressive both in and out of possession. A lot of that had to do with the fact that they went down early, but you have to give them credit for not just sitting back.

The problem with their approach is they do not have any ball winning in the middle of the pitch or enough talent in their back line to play an up and down type of match. If they do that here against Czechia they are playing right into what they want to do, which is play in transition. Their best approach would be to sit deeper and force the Czech Republic to build out of the back and break them down. But, even that might not be enough.

The other aspect that is troubling for Georgia in this game is they do not defend crosses well at all. They allowed nine accurate crosses against Turkey and during qualifying had the worst aerial duel win rate. Not to mention, they are a below average set piece defense, which is an area where the Czech Republic thrives.

Czech Republic

This will be a much different matchup for the Czech Republic than the one against Portugal.

The gameplan was pretty simple for Czechia in their first match. They sat deep in a compact defensive block, denied space through the middle and defended crosses at an elite level. Now, they are going to be the ones that are going to be controlling a majority of the possession or at the very least will be able to attack a lot more.

They will also be able to set up their man to man high press against Georgia, and it should be really successful. Georgia really struggled in qualifying against Spain, not because they couldn’t control the ball, but when they did win the ball in their own final third they couldn’t hold onto it. During qualifying, Georgia allowed the second-most high recoveries in the Euro field and Turkey had 18 against them on Tuesday.

If they are able to deploy their press with success, it's going to lead to a lot of easy transition opportunities, which should translate to a lot of high quality chances.

Georgia vs Czech Republic

Prediction

This match sets up really well to what the Czech Republic's strengths are. They are not the fastest team in the world, so often times the ball goes out wide and they try to beat teams with crosses. Facing a team like Georgia that is not only poor at defending crosses, but also the worst team at winning aerial duels, is a big problem.

Georgia also tried far too often to build out of the back against Turkey instead of playing directly. If they try that against Czechia, they are going to turn the ball over because the Czech Republic led Euro qualifying in high recoveries.

The market continues to give this Georgian team that allowed well over two expected goals per 90 minutes during qualifying too much market respect. I have the Czech Republic projected at -189, so I like the value on them at -130.

Pick: Czech Republic ML (-130 via FanDuel)