Germany vs Denmark Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Germany Odds | -163 |
| Italy Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -138 |
Let's dive into the Germany vs Denmark odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Saturday, June 29.
Tournament hosts Germany look to progress to the quarterfinals when they take on Denmark.
Germany were very impressive during the group stage, but needed a late goal against Switzerland to finish atop Group A. Julian Naglesmann has proven himself to be the best manager in this tournament so far, as Germany have been one of the most difficult teams to stop. There could be some changes to their lineup on Saturday, but in any case they are deserving favorites to get by Denmark.
Denmark drew their way to the knockout stage and ended up finishing second in Group C. The Danes were not impressive offensively, but they did enough to get to this stage in the competition. With that being said, it's going to be a tall mountain to climb to get by Germany.
Germany Picks
Germany faced their toughest test yet against Switzerland, who gave them some problems and were very brave and aggressive in their defending. Naglesmann’s system is all about dragging defenders into uncomfortable positions to create space for their attack. Akanji was tasked with marking Musiala and would often times follow him really deep when he would drop in build up. The same thing kept happening with Havertz and Wirtz as well with the hope of being able to have one of those three guys make runs off the back like when the space had opened up.
Germany are still one of the most difficult teams to defend in this tournament and even though they struggled, they still created 1.6 expected goals and took 18 shots against Switzerland. They are going to force the Danes to press them effectively, which is something that I am not sure they are capable of doing.
Even though they conceded a goal against Switzerland, Germany have been one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. They have only conceded 1.8 expected goals in their three group stage matches because of how well they control the ball and defend in transition.
Denmark Picks
There are a lot of concerns for the Danish attack right now. They have become way too reliant on Christian Eriksaen to create more of their chances and take most of their shots. Eriksen has 10 shots so far this tournament, while their two strikers, Jonas Wind and Rasmus Hojlund, have combined for seven total shots in three matches. They only created 3.2 expected goals during the group stage and more specifically, 43% of their shots have come from outside the box.
Their match against England is a good example of what this match is going to be like because they are not going to have a high amount of possession. In that match against England, they sat deep in a 5-3-2 and did not allow England to play through the middle of the pitch. They only allowed 2.3 expected goals throughout the group stage, but this will be the best team they have faced yet.
A couple things that Denmark are going to have to do if they want to give Germany problems is be brave in their defending. Switzerland pressured and cut off every easy pass to Toni Kroos to not allow him to pick them apart. If they just sit back like they did for most of the match against England, they are going to be in trouble.
Germany vs Denmark
Prediction
Switzerland showed that to beat Germany, you have to hit them quickly in transition. Denmark don't even have a shot off a counterattack yet this tournament.
Germany are going to control a majority of the possession in this match and it's going to be on Denmark with how aggressive they are in their defensive structure at not giving Kroos and the rest of the German team easy passes in build up.
With the struggles of the Danish attack, I find it really hard to see how they are going to create a lot of chances in this match. I have BTTS – No projected at -164, so I like the value on the current line of -125.
