Germany vs Scotland Predictions, Picks | Euro 2024 Match Preview
Lukas Schulze/Getty. Pictured: Ilkay Gundogan.
Germany vs Scotland Odds
| Germany Odds | -352 |
| Scotland Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
Euro 2024 is finally here as host nation Germany takes on Scotland in the opening match of the tournament.
The last two international tournaments have been a complete disaster by German standards. They were knocked out in the round of 16 at the last Euros and then failed to make it out of the group stage at the 2022 World Cup. Things have changed since that World Cup exit, with Julian Naglesmann now at the helm looking to establish Germany once again as one of the elites in Europe.
Scotland finished second in their qualifying group over the likes of Erling Haaland's Norway to get to Euro 2024. Things have not gone well for Scotland at major international tournaments, as they've never progressed past the group stage. They have a number of players with Premier League experience, so they will be no push over for Germany in this opening match.
Here is my Germany vs Scotland prediction in my first Euro 2024 match preview.
Germany
Julian Naglesmann taking the helm for Germany is a massive boost because he is the best tactical manager in this tournament. What makes him so great is his ability to adapt to the situation. Germany will use a number of different build up structures given the opponent that they are going to face, so with Scotland playing a five man back line, I wouldn't be surprised to see Naglesmann have them set up in 3-1-6 build up.
The other great aspect about him is he's not of the thought that building out of the back is the only way they need to play. He also believes that if Germany have the opportunity to play direct, they are going to do it. They have incredible passing, pace and ball carrying ability in their attack with Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertez and İlkay Gündoğan that can rip defenses apart.
Out of possession for Germany is where things really have improved from previous international tournaments. Under Hansi Flick at the World Cup, Germany were playing really aggressive with their high press and playing a high defensive line, which left them incredibly exposed. Under Naglesmann in the seven friendlies that he's been in charge, they are playing more of a 4-4-2 or even a 4-2-4 compact mid block, forcing opponents to either play the ball wide or send long balls up the striker. This tournament they have perhaps the most solid defensive center back pairing in Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah. They are incredibly good at winning both ground and aerial duals. So, Germany are going to be a much more difficult team to play though at the Euros.
Scotland
The reason Scotland are at the Euros is because they are a good defensive team. Steve Clarke will have his side playing in a 5-3-2 out of possession and with the ball winning of Scott McTominay, John McGinn and Callum McGregor in the midfield they make it incredibly difficult for teams to play through the middle. Not only that, but they very rarely allow teams to get in transition against them and even if they do, they do an incredible job of stopping them. During qualifying, Scotland allowed the fewest counterattack shots per 90 minutes of anyone in the Euro field.
They are well equipped to play a possession-dominant team like Germany because they faced Spain twice in qualifying and held them to under one expected goal in the first half of both and then the match started to open up in the second half.
The problem with Scotland is they do not provide much going forward in attack. Lyndon Dykes is out for the tournament, which means Che Adams is going to be up top and he historically has not played well in a transition-based system. They were largely reliant on Scott McTominay scoring goals from the edge of the box during qualifying, but having a deep lying midfielder being your leading goalscorer is generally not a great sign for your offense.
Germany vs Scotland
Prediction
Naglesmann, like most elite managers, wants his team to play through the middle of the pitch. He tends to do a pretty massive overload there with Wirtz and Kimmich holding width near the touchline to get them into 1 v 1 situations. Scotland did an incredible job in both matches against Spain in qualifying at closing off the middle of the pitch and forcing the ball out wide. Spain then proceeded to send in a bunch of crosses, which were largely unsuccessful.
Germany are not the type of team that is going to consistently beat teams with crosses into the box and quite frankly, they do not have the aerial winners to get on the end of them. So, I think it's going to be a little bit of a stalemate early on.
During qualifying, Scotland only conceded three first half goals and also only allowed 0.52xG per first half. So, I like the value on the first half under 1 at +120.
Pick: First Half Under 1 (+120 via bet365)
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