Girona and Feyenoord meet for a crucial Champions League match after both lost their opening match.
Girona had a metoric rise up the La Liga table last season to finish inside the top four, but what typically happens with teams who have this type of out of nowhere success is their roster gets gutted. That is exactly what happened to Girona, as they lost their three most important players, and it has had an effect on the beginning of their La Liga campaign.
Feyenoord got drilled by Leverkusen in their opening Champions League match. Their results and numbers in the Eredivisie are way down from where they were under Arne Slot, as they are still searching to find their identity. It is only match week two, but dropping all three points here will put Feyenoord in a horrible position, so they really need to get a result from this match.
Here is my Girona vs. Feyenoord prediction.
Girona vs. Feyenoord Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Girona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -110 | 2.5 -170o / +120u | -110 |
| Feyenoord Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -170o / +120u | +275 |
- Girona vs. Feyenoord moneyline odds: Girona -110, Feyenoord +275, Draw +285
- Girona vs. Feyenoord over/under: 2.5 goals (over -170, under +120)
- Girona vs. Feyenoord pick: Over 3
I am backing the Over 3 in Girona vs. Feyenoord.
Girona Preview
Girona had a difficult summer, losing their star striker Artem Dovbyk, their best winger Savio and their best midfielder Alexi Garcia. However, they were able to retain their manager Michel, which means their style of play hasn't changed. The reason they had such a metoric rise up the table was because of their aggressive brand of attacking football.
They would consistently build out of the back and be able to get wide overloads against every singe opponent so that once they entered the final third they could create a ton of chances from wide areas. Last season, nobody in La Liga created more chances from cutbacks and crosses than Girona, which will be a big key against Feyenoord.
When Girona reach the final third they will often try to overload the the opponent's last line of defense by utilizing a 3-1-6 shape with their greatest success coming from the attackers dropping into the half space to create that 3 v 2 overload in wide areas. It's what allowed Girona to put up gaudy attacking numbers, averaging 1.86 xG per 90 minutes in a league that is very low event. Their offensive numbers have taken a dip, but they still are averaging 1.38 xG per 90 minutes.
The problem with playing this aggressively is it left Girona very open to teams who can quickly hit them on the counter. They allowed 1.43 xG per 90 minutes in La Liga and in their first match against PSG they were not that good defensively, conceding well over two expected goals.
Feyenoord Preview
Feyenoord look a little different under Brian Priske than they did under Arne Slot, and not for the better. They were terrible defensively in their lone Champions League match against Leverkusen, conceding four goals in a match that never looked competitive.
Priske's out of possession tactics are a little different to that of Arne Slot and it is seemingly taking Feyenoord a while to play them at the highest level. The way he sets up his team out of possession is going to be very important because he likes to take the approach of a zonal approach with each man picking up whoever comes into their area on the pitch. If they stay disciplined, it sometimes worked, but as you saw when they faced teams like Leverkusen, who use the same three and four man in-possession system as Girona, it leaves them in a lot of situations where they have numerical disadvantages.
Feyenoord defensively are going to regress and likely are going to struggle in this match because they lost two of their best defensive players in Mats Wieffer, who is now at Brighton, and Lutsharel Geertruida, who is now at RB Leipzig. Even in the Champions League group stage last season they conceded eight expected goals against Atletico Madrid, Lazio and Celtic, who are nowhere close to the level of Leverkusen.
Girona vs. Feyenoord Prediction
Feyenoord are still a good attacking team that can exploit Girona's aggressive in-possession tactics. Feyenoord still have Santiago Gimenez up top and are coming off averaging 2.7 xG per 90 minutes in the Eredivisie last year under Slot.
Even though Girona lost two of their best offensive players and their offensive numbers have taken a dip, it's because they have played against a lot of really passive teams in La Liga and they've had trouble breaking down low blocks, but that is not how Feyenoord are going to set up defensively.
With how aggressive these teams are both in and out of possession once the first goal goes in, it's going to open the match right up with a lot of chances at both ends.
I have 3.25 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
