We have another stacked weekend of matches coming our way on the global soccer scene, with a bunch of live underdogs looking to make some noise against their fellow combatants.
It was a banner showing from our crew via last weekend's picks, with the quartet putting together a 3-1 record. Jeremy Pond opened things up Saturday with upset winner Birmingham City (+215), which earned a 2-1 victory over Derby County in the English Championship.
Later in the day, Matthew Trebby came in hot with a little Major League Soccer flavor and hit with Inter Miami (+220) in its 2-1 win over Philadelphia. Anthony Dabbundo then closed the show, delivering the stellar hat trick with Burnley (+290) cruising to a 4-0 victory over Wolves in the Premier League.
If you're new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend across the planet. Whether it's a showdown in Serie, La Liga, Premier League or even Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at the group's latest live picks on the card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leeds United (Premier League) | Leeds | +255 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lens (Ligue 1) | Lens | +650 | Saturday | 11 a.m. ET |
| Everton vs. Aston Villa (Premier League) | Aston Villa | +275 | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
EUROPEAN UNDERDOG PICKS
Jeremy Pond: Leeds United ML (+255) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Hello, old friend.
Ah, the Peacocks of Leeds United. This club has been either my best pal or biggest thorn in my side throughout the entire Premier League campaign. Despite being in the black more than the red with this outfit, we still have an unbelievably volatile, rollercoaster-type of a relationship.
However, despite the trials and tribulations, I am jumping on Leeds in this ripe road spot against underachieving, underperforming Brighton.
The Peacocks are playing their best brand of soccer down the stretch in England's top flight, going unbeaten in their last six outings. Not only has Leeds been running red-hot, it has been doing so against some of the league's best. The Peacocks have snatched points from Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and soon-to-be champion Manchester City this season.
Leeds has struggled when it comes to the expected-goals battle as of late, losing in the advanced metric against its last three powerful foes: Manchester City (2.4-0.3 xG); Liverpool (2.3-1.8 xG); and Manchester United by a 1.3-0.4 xG margin. However, the Peacocks left those three matches with a combined five points with their shocking win over the Cityzens and two draws.
In contrast, this continues to be a season Brighton and its supporters will probably want to soon forget. The Seagulls have put together some of the league's best metrics, but find themselves in 17th place in the table and just seven clear of Fulham in the relegation zone.
Brighton had one of its worst games in its most recent contest, somehow suffering a 1-0 road loss to last-place Sheffield United. The Seagulls dominated the xG statistics, finishing with a convincing 2.2-0.8 xG advantage. Yet, it wound up ending the game with their 13th loss of the season.
The brutal performance at Bramall Lane added to Brighton's woes as of late, with the club now winless in its last four games. The Seagulls have also been shut out in their last 270-minutes plus on the pitch.
Bottom line, Leeds is in a better form and should not be this heavy of an underdog against a team playing as poorly as Brighton. I could see the Peacocks maybe at +180 to +210, but not north of +250 on the moneyline.
Let's be friends again, Leeds. Bring all three points back to Elland Road.
Matt Trebby: Leeds ML (+255) vs. Brighton
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
If I’ve learned anything from watching Brighton this season, it’s that it cannot be counted on.
In a matchup with Leeds on the south coast, we’re likely to see plenty of chances. I give the edge to the team that has shown more prowess in front of goal and is far higher in the league table.
The Peacocks' goal for the season is to land a berth in European soccer. As for Brighton? The Seagulls are just hoping to stay in the England's first division.
According to expected points at Understat, Brighton should be fifth in the league table behind only the two Manchester giants, Chelsea and Liverpool. Meanwhile, Leeds is 11th in that category.
At some point, though, results have to come. They simply haven’t for Brighton. So, getting Leeds at +250 odds on the road is too good to pass up.
Maybe this is the game that Brighton breaks through in front of goal and secures safety. However, I have 33 games of evidence that they’re unlikely to do so against the Peacocks.
BJ Cunningham: Lens ML (+650) vs. Paris Saint-Germain
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 11 a.m. ET
Even though Paris Saint-Germain is on the ropes in the Champions League, it's also in trouble in Ligue 1 play. The Parisians, who are currently a point behind Lille, have a very precarious sandwich spot against fifth-place Lens.
The French power's xG numbers are very impressive, but they’re not that pretty when facing some of the top teams in France. In seven matches versus the top-five sides in the French top flight, PSG is a horrendous 1-1-5 with a -1.31 xG differential.
It’ll be interesting to see what team manager Mauricio Pochettino chooses for this match, with a vital Champions League match against Manchester City on Tuesday in England.
One of the players that won't be selected will be star striker Kylian Mbappé, who has been ruled out after picking up a knock. That will be a huge blow to PSG, since he has a 0.80 xG per 90-minute scoring rate in Ligue 1 this season.
Lens is having a dream first season since promotion, currently sitting in a Europa League spot. The reason for that is because of its offense, which averages 1.53 xG per match.
The Blood and Gold are on an incredible run in Ligue 1, going unbeaten in their last 12 league matches and have won three of their last four on the road. They upset PSG, 1-0, on opening weekend when the Parisians were in another one of those aforementioned sandwich spots after the UCL final in August, so could we see a similar situation in Saturday's showdown?
I have Lens projected at +560, so I think there is some value on the club to pull off a huge upset at Parc des Princes.
Anthony Dabbundo: Aston Villa ML (+275) vs. Everton
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
Aston Villa’s campaign for Europe came to a screeching halt with the injury and setback from star attacking midfielder Jack Grealish. The Villans have been fine without him — a good mid-table side — but haven’t been consistent enough to turn draws into wins and vault into the top seven in the standings.
The club's xG numbers suggest they're about the ninth-best team in the league, yet is a significant road underdog against Everton. I understand the injuries are important, but what about the Toffees has been impressive?
Everton is 11th in xGDiff per 90 minutes, plus it's 11th best in my ratings. The FiveThirtyEight soccer ratings agree with me that Aston Villa is a marginally better team at both ends of the pitch.
This number doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as I project the Villans as very slight underdogs away from home at +185 odds. In the last two months, Everton has played even with West Bromwich Albion, Burnley and Arsenal.
Bottom line, Everton is simply not that good. At this price, I’ll take a flier on Aston Villa to take all three points.
