Welcome to the last hurrah. Yes, our Action Network soccer analysts are taking their final cracks at delivering live underdog winners on this weekend's schedule across the global landscape.
There were only two picks in last week's entry, but Jeremy Pond came through with his second upset winner in a row via Portland (+205) pulling off the road upset against San Jose in Major League Soccer action.
If you're new to this preview, our experts search for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend across the planet. Whether it's a showdown in the Premier League, MLS, La Liga, Ligue 1 or even the Championship, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at the picks from our crew on the weekend card.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim vs. Hertha Berlin | Hertha | +260 | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Celta Vigo vs. Real Betis (La Liga) | Celta Vigo | +220 | Saturday | 12 p.m. ET |
| Portland vs. LA Galaxy (MLS) | LA Galaxy | +310 | Saturday | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Fulham vs. Newcastle United (Premier League) | Newcastle | +230 | Sunday | 11 a.m. ET |
Odds as of Friday night via DraftKings.
Anthony Dabbundo: Hertha Berlin ML (+260) vs. Hoffenheim
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
Hertha Berlin has played a lot of soccer in recent weeks after COVID-19 issues within the squad derailed a portion of their season. The club is now safe from relegation in the Bundesliga, meaning that neither it nor Hoffenheim has much on the line when they meet Saturday to wrap up the season.
The table suggests these teams are pretty far apart, with Hertha in 15th place and just above the relegation zone. In contrast, Hoffenheim sits in 11th in the German top flight.
However, the underlying statistics don’t tell the same story. Both are unbeaten in five games, with the underlying expected-goals data suggesting they have been about even in recent matches and throughout the entire campaign.
For a game where motivation is called into question for both sides, I’m more likely to play on the underdog and that’s exactly what I’m doing in this contest. My projections make Hertha a +190 odds underdog, so that's much lower than the +225 being offered at DraftKings at the moment.
The end-of-season Bundesliga games have a history of being notoriously chaotic, so this one could feature plenty of goals and questionable defending with the combatants having one eye on the offseason. Hertha has been the more solid defense , ranking in the top half of the league in xGA this season.
That said, there's value backing Hertha to take all three points.
BJ Cunningham: Celta Vigo ML (+220) vs. Real Betis
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
Now, let me first start by saying Celta Vigo has nothing to play for in this match, while Real Betis is battling for a Europa League spot.
However, Celta Vigo and Real Betis are pretty much the exact same team and the host has been on fire the past month. These sides have just over a +1.5 xGD on the season, but Celta Vigo has won five consecutive matches, including a 2-1 upset against Barcelona last weekend.
The Sky Blues have also been very good at home this season, picking up nine of their 14 wins there and have a +7.02 xGD during those matches.
Real Betis has really been struggling on the road over the second half of its campaign, as it hasn't won a match away from home since Feb. 28. The club has also been really bad on the road when facing teams in the top half of the La Liga table, going 1-2-5 with a -6.71 xGD overall.
Real Betis won the first meeting between these sides via a 2-1 margin, but Celta Vigo triumphed in the xG battle by a 1.36-0.75 margin.
Even though the Sky Blues have nothing to play for, I highly doubt it's going to just roll over and let Real Betis take all three points, especially given how solid it has been over the past month.
I have Celta Vigo projected at +144 odds, so I think there is plenty of value on the home side to grab all three points and pull off the upset.
Jeremy Pond: LA Galaxy ML (+310) vs. Portland
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 3:30 p.m. ET
There is an old adage that warns you to never bite the hand that feeds you. Well, I'm chomping down hard when it comes to Portland and going against one of my most favorite clubs in all of Major League Soccer.
Yes, I'm turning the other way from the Timbers, who helped me hit against San Jose in last weekend's action and delivered a huge longshot winner at +2800 odds in last year's MLS is Back tournament in Florida.
Of course, I love Portland and everything going on in one of the coolest cities in North America. I just don't fancy the club in its showdown against the Los Angeles Galaxy, who have gotten off to a blistering start this season.
Los Angeles enters this showdown second in the Western Conference, trailing Seattle by just three points. The Galaxy, who have four wins in their first five games, face a foe that has stumbled out of the gate to a sluggish 2-3 start.
When it comes to recent history between these outfits, Portland has the upper hand. The Timbers have won five of the last six meetings with the Galaxy across all competitions. However, this is a different Los Angeles team and one that has a red-hot Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez leading the offensive attack with a league-best seven goals this season.
Does Portland deserve to be favored in this affair? Sure. However, there is no way we should be getting Los Angeles at +310 odds via DraftKings now or ever. This number is just way too high, so I find the Galaxy being an absolute steal if you like this road underdog.
Needless to say, I do and will make Los Angeles my top selection.
Matthew Trebby: Newcastle United ML (+230) vs. Fulham
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
I get that Fulham will want to exit the Premier League on a high note. However, it's crazy that Newcastle United, despite being in a very impressive run of form, is sitting at such a high number against a relegated opponent.
The Magpies have won four of their last seven league matches, losing twice with one draw during that span. One of those defeats was a wonderful contest that saw them suffer a 4-3 loss to Manchester City, which came in a game where they won the xG battle by a 2.2-1.3 margin.
The xG numbers are why I’m so high on Newcastle in this spot. The Magpies have gone over 1.5 xG in four of their last eight league games, registering more than 2.0 xG twice in their last three fixtures.
The red-hot goal scoring form of Arsenal loanee Joe Willock, who is the youngest player in league history to record a goal in six consecutive games, has been the catalyst.
Meanwhile, Fulham is in free fall. The Cottagers have lost seven of their last nine games, having recorded more than 1.0 xG in just three of those contests.
One team is in fine form and the other has already been relegated, plus it has struggled mightily down the stretch. Seems pretty simple, doesn’t it?
