It was a rough go of it for our crew in last week's edition of Global Underdogs, despite getting off to a flying start with our five selections.
Action Network soccer analyst Anthony Dabbundo opened the show, delivering a shocker via Hertha Berlin coming through as a +310 moneyline upset winner in its 1-0 victory against Augsburg in Bundesliga action.
Unfortunately, that was the lone triumph on the card that was headlined by some hard-luck results that wound with a few selections settling for draws in their respective contests.
That said, we have a busy weekend ahead of us, which means our squad has a chance to unleash its favorite moneyline gems. Handicappers Jeremy Pond, Ian Quillen and Nick Hennion are back again, taking their latest swings at delivering deliver some solid longshots around the world.
If you're a new or old friend to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it's a match in La Liga, Serie A, Major League Soccer or even a less popular league, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their favorite sides on the exciting schedule.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford vs. Tottenham | Brentford (+320) | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Colorado vs. Charlotte FC | Charlotte FC (+550) | Saturday | 9 p.m. ET |
| Genoa vs. Cagliari | Cagliari (+240) | Sunday | 12 p.m. ET |
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Jeremy Pond: Brentford ML (+320) vs. Spurs
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
So, I was all over the place when it came to narrowing down my selection after coming up short with last week's pick (the Los Angeles Galaxy drew with Chicago in MLS action) in this feature.
First, I honed in on Swansea City hosting Middlesbrough in the Championship. Then, we went way out of the box and took a look at the Western Sydney Wanderers to pull off an upset against the Wellington Phoenix in the Australia A-League for our top pick. And yes, I religiously watch that league Down Under.
Yet, everything kept leading me back to the same underdog I couldn't seem to get past. And that club?
Welcome to the party, Brentford.
Can we talk about the impact Christian Eriksen has had at Brentford…
Without him they were winless in eight Premier League games, losing seven and getting dragged into a relegation battle.
The club have since won all five matches he's started 🙌 pic.twitter.com/H8gUCHmQ1o
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) April 16, 2022
Ivan Toney, Christian Eriksen and the lads have been the bee's knees of late, winning three on the bounce and five of their last six contests. And overall, the wins haven't come against EPL slouches, other than the 2-1 triumph against Watford last time out. Prior to that, the club dealt a 4-1 shellacking to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge before a 2-1 home victory against West Ham United.
As my colleague, BJ Cunningham, pointed out, Brentford has been a far better team at Brentford Community Stadium than away from it. The side has a +4.8 expected-goals differential overall, plus it won the xG battle against the Blues (2.2-1.9) and held the Hammers to a paltry 0.3 xG in the shutout.
So, if the upstart club was good enough to topple Chelsea at the start of this winning streak and take down a West Ham outfit battling for European football next season, how is it not good enough to defeat a Tottenham side that looked godawful in last weekend's home loss to Brighton & Hove Albion?
That said, this moneyline number is off — and I mean way off — and should be closer to Brentford in the +195 neighborhood, according to my projections. As for my action, I'm on the Bees getting +0.5 goals on the spread line, but this ML number is too good to pass up on a team in such good form at the moment.
Ian Quillen: Charlotte FC ML (+550) vs. Colorado
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9 p.m. ET
Charlotte FC is still looking for its first away win in club history. However, it's more a function of schedule and bad fortune more than poor play.
Two of the expansion team's defeats came against defending Supporters' Shield holder New England and current Shield co-leader Philadelphia. The club was arguably the better team in the other two games, but were done in by a deflection and penalty kick each in losses to Atlanta and D.C. United.
The visitors also have the more competent pure finisher in Karol Swiderski.
Colorado is a very good home team, but aside from a season-opening defeat to Los Angeles FC, it has had one of the softer early schedules in the league. And theoretically, its reliance on counterattacking and set pieces make the host more equipped for the road.
I'm not saying Charlotte should be favored, but they've been in every away game and its -5.5 xG difference includes a lot of noise. The price of +550 odds and implied 16% probability is simply too high.
If you believe in history repeating, Austin FC also got its first-ever road win in Colorado a season ago.
Nick Hennion: Cagliari ML (+240) vs. Genoa
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Sunday | 12 p.m. ET
The reverse fixture saw Cagliari drop all three points at home, but the underlying metrics for that match tell a different story.
Cagliari won the match on expected goals by a 1.5-1.19 margin and conceded three times on shots that were worth a combined 0.44 xG, per fotmob.com. That represents the second consecutive occasion Cagliari won the match on xG against Genoa, but failed to win the match.
Plus, manager Walter Mazzari’s side has played decent soccer against bottom half in Serie A despite experiencing quite a bit of misfortune. In 18 such fixtures, Cagliari owns a -12 goal differential against only a -2.3 xGDiff overall.
Further, Cagliari has some momentum coming out of last week’s fixture, as it secured a 1-0 win over Sassuolo while winning the xG battle (1.5-0.3) in the process. On the flip side, Genoa has lost three consecutive matches and finds itself facing the prospect of relegation.
Although Genoa strung together an eight-match unbeaten run (one win; seven draws) prior to that losing streak, I believe Cagliari is a bad matchup. The Rossoblu are seventh in the Italian top fight in completed crosses into the penalty area and 13th in successful pressures. Meanwhile, Genoa is 16th and 20th in the league in those respective defensive categories.
Expect Cagliari to get revenge as it seeks to distance itself from the relegation fight.
