We have reached the end of the road, at least when it comes to the world of European soccer season. And what a run it has been, with surprise league winners and clubs booking their spots in European completions, some monumental upsets domestically and internationally, plus so much more.
That means, our weekly Global Underdogs piece will be making its final appearance for the season. However, don’t worry. Our crew will be back next season with this popular feature, with the hope of cashing more live longshots.
We only connected on one outright winner last time out, with Major League Soccer aficionado Ian Quillen hitting FC Dallas (+360 moneyline) in its road win against the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Quillen is back for the final week with a pick, along with colleagues Anthony Dabbundo, Brett Pund, Jeremy Pond and Nick Hennion. The squad has landed on some sneaky plays and hope to finish things strong.
If you're a new or old friend to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it's a match in Premier League, Serie A, Ligue 1 or maybe something from Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their favorite picks on the intriguing schedule.
Our Favorite ML Underdogs
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Lille vs. Rennes | Lille ML (+310) | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| FC Cincinnati vs. New England | Cincinnati ML (+200) | Saturday | 6 p.m. ET |
| Burnley vs. Newcastle | Newcastle ML (+225) | Sunday | 11 a.m. ET |
| Salernitana vs. Udinese | Udinese ML (+375) | Sunday | 3 p.m. ET |
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Anthony Dabbundo: Lille ML (+320) vs. Rennes
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
Lille has had a disappointing season in its Ligue 1 title defense, but a lot of that has been driven by bad finishing variance and not poor performance. Les Dogues have a +11 expected goal difference but their actual GDiff is even for the season. The defense, which has been quite underrated as well in the betting market, is undervalued at home on the final day of the year.
Rennes has featured a stellar attack in France, but also run really well with finishing variance. The club has scored 80 goals from 60 xG and there will likely be regression coming as we head into next season. Lille still is excellent at preventing big scoring chances and scoring on the counterattack, which makes them an excellent underdog profile.
Lille was a +320 moneyline home against Paris Saint-Germain earlier this season and now it's at the same number on home soil against Rennes. The visiting side is inflated because of its must-win situation for European places, so I’m happy to fade that narrative and take a shot on Les Dogues.
Brett Pund: FC Cincinnati (+200) vs. New England
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 6 p.m. ET
Whenever you see a home team at this good of a price in Major League Soccer, you have to look to back it. And that's exactly what we have here with FC Cincinnati.
The Orange and Blue, who have won four consecutive league matches, have been solid at TQL Stadium this season, posting a +4.7 xGDiff at home in five games, according to fbref.com. Meanwhile, New England has failed to pick up a win on the road in five attempts, which includes losses to lesser opposition in Charlotte, Inter Miami and D.C. United.
Over those five fixtures, the Revolution have conceded 2.6 goals per game and at least two goals in each road match. This doesn’t bode well against a Cincinnati side that ranks fourth in xG per 90 minutes (1.73) and has averaged 2.26 expected goals per home outing.
While I do like this moneyline price, you can get even better odds if you pair the home victory with the total flying over 1.5 goals via a Single Game Parlay at +250 odds.
Regardless, I’m backing this underdog entering the game in better form.
Jeremy Pond: Newcastle ML (+225) vs. Burnley
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
To say Burnley has been a thorn in my side the entire EPL season is the definition of an understatement. Now, the Clarets face a situation where they have to get points — and scoreboard watch the Brentford vs. Leeds United match — to keep their place in the English top flight.
Unfortunately for Burnley, it's facing a club that has a legitimate shot at finishing top 10 in the table in Newcastle. Combine that with the fact the Magpies have won five of their last seven games, including a 2-0 win against Arsenal last time out, and this could be an utter disaster at Turf Moor.
However, that could all change if the dream scenario happens: Leeds go down a goal or two to Brentford, which means a draw would suffice for Burnley to stay up. The Clarets could then revert to their old ways and ride this thing out to safety.
The problem with that, though, is the fact I think the Magpies will jump on the Clarets early, which will change the entire dynamic of the relegation drama.
I've rarely trusted Burnley this season. I'm not trusting them here either.
Nick Hennion: Udinese ML (+370) vs. Salernitana
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
I get that Salernitana arrives at this fixture on a seven-match unbeaten run, but it’s still among the five worst Serie A clubs this season.
Although it has nothing to play for, Udinese is a positive regression candidate heading into its contest. Through 37 Serie A games, it has a -1 goal differential on a +0.4 xGDiff, per fbref.com. Additionally, in just its last nine tilts, Udinese holds a +3.7 xGDiff against a +0.2 xGDiff for Salernitana.
Udinese also has a good record against the current bottom five in the Italian top flight. Through nine such fixtures, it's 5-2-2 (W-L-D) and generated at least one xG in five games. The Udinese defense has also posted above-average metrics, allowing only 1.01 xG per 90 minutes, down from a season-long average of 1.36 xG/90 minutes.
This fixture also sets up as a good revenge angle for Udinese, which arrives with a few statistical edges over Salernitana. Udinese is 10th in Serie A in successful pressure percentage, but is the fourth worst in pressure percentage against. Further, Udinese is sixth-best in xG off set-piece situations. Salernitana is seventh worst at defending set pieces.
Although Salernitana needs to win to guarantee safety, take a good price with Udinese to end the season on a high note.
