Well, our weekly Global Underdogs betting feature is back again.
Things didn't go as well last time out, so our crew is hoping to return to its winning ways with its latest set of intriguing selections on the world landscape.
This week, Action Network Soccer Editor Jeremy Pond is joined by handicappers Ian Quillen, Brett Pund and Nick Hennion for some sneaky wagers. The quartet has uncovered some tasty picks, so it's hoping it can find some of that opening-week magic it experienced this time out.
If you're a new or old friend, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it's a match in Premier League, Serie A, Championship or maybe something from Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their top selections on the busy docket.
Our Favorite ML Underdogs
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke City vs. Sunderland | Sunderland ML (+255) | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| RBNY vs. FC Cincinnati | FC Cincinnati ML (+360) | Saturday | 6 p.m. ET |
| Minnesota vs. Austin FC | Austin FC ML (+210) | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| West Ham vs. Brighton | Brighton ML (+210) | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Jeremy Pond: Sunderland ML (+255) vs. Stoke City
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Folks, I tried hard to find another League Two gem like I did via Walsall on debut. The Saddlers came through as +275 road underdogs against Newport County via a 1-0 victory, but I couldn't sniff out another good play from England's fourth division.
Instead, I've climbed a few rungs up the country's ladder into the Championship and landed on an old friend to win outright. Yes, I'm backing Sunderland to get the job done away from the Stadium of Light in its match against struggling Stoke City.
The Black Cats (1-2-1) are fresh off a midweek setback against Sheffield United, but played down a man for 59 minutes after Dan Neil was sent off. They still managed to get one back via a Lynden Gooch goal in the 55th minute, but were unable to secure the equalizer.
As for Stoke, it was lucky to bag a point in its midweek 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough. The Potters (1-1-2) were anything but impressive, so they should have felt fortunate to head home from Brittania Stadium with anything in their account.
Bottom line, Sunderland is the better outfit at the moment and has a chance to journey back to Wearside with all three points it can reproduce any of its prior efforts that saw it go unbeaten to start the campaign.
Ha'way the Lads!
Ian Quillen: FC Cincinnati ML (+360) vs. New York Red Bulls
- Odds available at Caesars
- Day | Time: Saturday | 6 p.m. ET
That both New York Red Bulls and FC Cincinnati have non-existent home/away splits doesn’t quite make sense based on expected-goals data.
The Red Bulls are right about Eastern Conference average in xGDiff at home, plus the same can be said for Cincinnati’s xGDiff on the road. However, these teams press more frequently than most in MLS and the Red Bulls are in a league of their own there. That can lead to away teams over-performing an expected home-field advantage.
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Cincinnati has won four of 12 away matches and RBNY has lost five of 12 outings on home soil. Despite sitting lower in the standings, Cincinanti also has more reliable finishers in Brandon Vazquez, Luciano Acosta and the suddenly resurgent Brenner.
Add in the Red Bulls’ midweek travels to Atlanta under manager Gerhard Struber, who is known to eschew squad rotation, and this is a good place to play the visitors at a 21.7% implied probability.
Brett Pund: Austin FC ML (+210) vs. Minnesota United
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 8 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers are giving us the opportunity to back the best road team in Major League Soccer at more than +200 odds, so we must take advantage of that with Austin FC in this meeting.
Los Verde enter the weekend with the most points (26) away from home, road wins (eight) and sits tied with Los Angeles Football Club for most points per game on the road (2.00) this season.
Meanwhile, Minnesota United has only beaten one team at Allianz Field this campaign that currently holds a playoff spot in Real Salt Lake. This is also the same side that owns a -6.1 xGDiff in all fixtures against these same clubs in postseason contention.
Back the visitors to get the best of the Loons.
Nick Hennion: Brighton ML (+210) vs. West Ham United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
Beyond the fact West Ham United faced a mid-week Europa Conference League playoff and enter this match on short rest, this sets up as a great spot for Brighton & Hove Albion.
In two head-to-head meetings last season, manager Graham Potter's side avoided defeat in both. Although it lost the big scoring chances battle by a 3-2 margin at the London Stadium, the Seagulls dropped the xG battle ever so slightly (1.45-1.43), per fotmob.com.
The most recent meeting at the American Express Community Stadium saw Brighton fleece West Ham in a 3-1 round, plus finish with 1.95-0.41 xG edge.
Although the Hammers' attack has been a bit unlucky this season — zero goals on 2.5 xG overall — their defense has been atrocious. Even if you forgive the performance against Manchester City, they still allowed 1.4 xG to Nottingham Forest of all sides.
For those reasons, give Brighton a shot on the road.
