Haiti vs Denmark Odds
| Haiti Odds | +900 |
| Denmark Odds | -334 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +100) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+120 / -163) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Group D has been the lowest scoring group of the entire competition through two match days. All four matches in the group have ended by the same exact 1-0 scoreline. England sit atop the group with six points and a +2 goal difference, while Haiti are at the foot of the group with zero points and a -2 goal difference. The relative parity in the group leaves some drama for the final day. England and Denmark are the clear favorites to advance, but Haiti and China have a chance to win and advance with some final day upsets.
Haiti came into this group with the lowest projected chance to move through, but they have been more competitive than most expected through two matches. They don't have anything to show for it on the scoreboard, but they haven't been a pushover in their first-ever World Cup appearance.
Denmark snatched a late winner against China and then conceded early against England and were never able to really threaten the English goal consistently with just 0.5 xG produced in total. Denmark need a win to guarantee safety, but a draw is also likely good enough for them to advance as long as China don't beat England.
Denmark are rightly favored, but is the market overlooking the quality of this Haiti side to keep this match competitive?
Haiti Not Crumbling in The Moment
Haiti have produced 31 touches in the attacking penalty area through two matches, which is much more than you'd have expected following games against China and Denmark. It's true that Haiti did play with an extra player for the final hour of the match against China after a red card, but the defense has yet to concede a non-penalty goal in the first two matches. The team has conceded just 2.7 non-penalty xG in two matches and now play a Denmark side that has produced fewer attacking penalty area touches than Haiti in the first 180 minutes of the competition.
That ability to get the ball into the box has out-paced Netherlands, Nigeria and Colombia – all teams that have won a match and either advanced or are very likely to advance to the knockout stage of the tournament. Haiti's defensive numbers also look quite impressive when you consider how competitive they were defending against England. Haiti are in the upper half of this tournament in crosses into the penalty area allowed and top half in touches allowed in the box.
Even though this is Haiti's first World Cup, the midfield isn't completely overrun or outmatched athletically. They've managed to maintain solid enough field tilt numbers and produced solid attacking chances at the other teams' goal. Even though they didn't score, 0.7 xG against England is a lot more than other fourth pot opponents were posting against Germany, Spain, the United States and Japan.
Denmark Failing to Generate Quality Offensive Output
Denmark cruised through World Cup Qualifying in a friendly group of inferior opponents, but the Danes haven't shown to offer much attacking output when facing World Cup level teams in the last few months. Denmark haven't scored more than one goal in any of their last five matches, and this was an issue for them at the Euros and in post-Euros friendlies as well. Denmark are relying on captain Pernille Harder to carry the weight of the attacking output, and she's managed just 0.3 xG in her first two World Cup 90s.
The Danes are one of 12 teams at the World Cup to average less than 10 shots per 90 and one of 13 to be sub 70% on pass completion rate. They are favored to make it through to the round of 16, but there's not much in the profile to suggest they've actually been one of the best 16 teams thus far. Haiti will concede a lot of possession and passing and won't engage a press until Denmark enter the attacking half. However, Denmark are actually worse than Haiti through two matches at completing passes into the opposition's final third and penalty area.
Denmark's defense held England to 1.1 xGA, an excellent defensive showing. But the lack of firepower and seemingly out of form Harder limits the ceiling for Denmark to separate from an inferior team on paper.
Haiti vs Denmark Pick
The market has missed on Haiti in each of their first two matches. The match between England and Haiti wasn't expected to be competitive at all and yet England produced just 1.8 non-penalty xG compared to 0.7 for Haiti. The Haitians gave away a penalty to China playing with an extra player, but the Haitians were even with the Chinese in the 11-on-11 minutes prior to the red card.
There's nothing in Denmark's statistical profile that suggest an explosive or dynamic outburst is coming. Haiti can remain competitive with them too and cover the +1.5, even if a result or advancing from this group might be too far of a stretch at this point. The gap between the middle and bottom of this group isn't all that big and that was evident in how competitive the China-Haiti and Denmark-China matches were.
I'd bet Haiti +1.5 at -125 or better.
The Pick: Haiti +1.5 (-125 or better)
