Bundesliga Odds, Picks & Predictions: Hertha Berlin vs. Union Berlin
| Bet Type | Odds |
| Hertha Berlin odds | +123 |
| Union Berlin odds | +215 |
| Draw odds | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115/-108) |
| Start time | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV channel | FS2 |
Friday's lone Bundesliga match should feature plenty of drama as Union Berlin will head across town to take on their rivals, Hertha Berlin, in the Berlin Derby.
Hertha marked their return to play with an upset win away at Hoffenheim while Union Berlin are coming off a home loss to the German giants, Bayern Munich. Both Berlin clubs are sitting a little below the middle of the table and aren't really threatened by relegation, so this derby will be more about bragging rights than anything else.
The Berlin Derby is a relatively new rivalry as this is Union Berlin's first season in the Bundesliga. Don't let that fool you though, as there's no love lost between these two clubs:
Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin come into the match after a 3-0 upset win at Hoffenheim last Saturday. After a scoreless first half, Die Alte Dame scored three goals in 16 minutes to put the game away. It was a fortunate result for Hertha as the expected goals report shows that Hoffenheim should have won the match.
Hertha Berlin have found results hard to come by at home this season, only taking 12 points and boasting an xG differential of -10.87 in 13 home games so far in 2019-20.
Union Berlin
Union Berlin lost their first game after the break to Bayern Munich, which was to be expected. However, Die Eisernen hung tough with the 28-time Bundesliga champions and were only outshot, 13-9. The expected goals report shows the game was a lot closer than most would have guessed.
Union Berlin have been up and down all season, especially on the road. Die Eisernen have lost every away match and were outscored 18-4 against teams at the top of the table, but it's a different story against weaker opposition. In six road matches against clubs at the foot of the standings, Union Berlin has taken 12 of a possible 18 points and have a +0.85 expected goal differential in those games.
Previous Matchup
Union Berlin won the previous matchup, 1-0, thanks to a stoppage-time penalty kick. Die Eisernen deserved the 1-0 as they outshot Hertha Berlin, 14-7, and held 54.2% possession edge in that match. The expected goals report also shows that Union Berlin's 1-0 result was justified.
Analysis
This will be a hotly contested derby, with not a lot to separate these two Berlin sides. Looking at the expected goals in my model, I have this game:
- Hertha Berlin – 1.40 xG
- Union Berlin – 1.26 xG.
The current line on this match has Hertha Berlin as a +125 favorite on DraftKings, which in my opinion is a tad too high for Die Alte Dame. Instead, I'm looking at playing Union Berlin at +130 on the Draw No Bet line.
Given Hertha Berlin's dreadful form at home, Union Berlin's away form against the bottom half of the table and the performance Union Berlin had in their first game; getting decent odds on Die Eisernen in the Draw No Bet market sticks out as good value.
The Bet: Union Berlin +123 (Draw No Bet)
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