Hungary vs Switzerland Predictions, Picks | Euro 2024 Match Preview
Carsten Harz/Getty. Pictured: Swiss National Team.
Hungary vs Switzerland Odds
| Hungary Odds | +240 |
| Switzerland Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -150 |
Hungary and Switzerland open up their tournaments in a crucial match in Group A.
Hungary won their qualifying group over Sebnia to get back to the Euros. They bring a mix of experience and young talent to the tournament, but they are favored to finish third in this group. Marco Rossi has been at the helm since 2018 and getting Hungary to back to back Euros has been an accomplishment in and of itself.
Switzerland finished second in their qualifying group behind Romania, but they are one of the more underrated teams in this tournament. In terms of experience, no team in this tournament has more than Switzerland, whose Starting XI has been playing together for the last two international tournaments. They made it to the quarterfinals of the last Euros, upsetting France along the way, so they are an incredibly dangerous team if they get out of Group A.
Let's dive into my Hungary vs Switzerland preview.
Hungary
The problem with Hungary is that outside of their two matches against Serbia they weren’t tested against a team like Switzerland. Even in their two matches against Serbia they lost the expected goals battle in both and were constantly getting opened up in transition.
Hungary benefited from playing the entire group stage in a positive or even game state. When they did try to press Serbia, they were not effective at closing them down and then we’re terrible trying to defend in transition. In an incredibly easy group, they allowed the fifth-most counterattack shots per 90 minutes in the entire Euro field and were also bottom five in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes.
Hungary are most likely going to have to play direct to be successful in this match. They are completely reliant on Dominik Szoboszlai to be their main man in build up and outside of him they really struggle to get the ball out of their final third. They allowed the most high recoveries of anyone in the Euro field, which is a really bad matchup against Switzerland, who forced the sixth-most high recoveries.
Switzerland
Switzerland are one of the more underrated teams in this tournament and have a great matchup against Hungary.
They have a core that has been playing together for a long time and the Swiss play Murat Yakin’s system really well. During qualifying, only Portugal and France had a better expected goal differential than Switzerland, who put up +2.00 xGD per 90 minutes. They underperformed pretty drastically both offensively and defensively, but the reason they are so good is how adaptable and how good they are in possession.
They are prepared for this matchup because they played a ton of passive low blocks throughout qualifying and were incredibly effective at breaking them down. Granit Xhaka is the conductor of the entire attack with Remo Fruler usually pushing forward in the half space try and allow Switzerland to create an overload centrally. It’s all about passing triangles in the half space for the Swiss. Against Romania, they constantly were pulling defenders out of position with their one touch passing and it allowed them to create well over five goals in their two meetings.
Hungary vs Switzerland
Prediction
Switzerland are being highly undervalued by the market because of finishing second in their qualifying group, but the underlying numbers suggest they were one of the best teams in Europe during qualifying. They allowed 11 goals off of 5.5 expected, so they are due for some positive regression and really shouldn't be conceding a lot of high quality chances here against Hungary.
Hungary's weaknesses all stem from when they are out of their comfort zone. They are perfectly fine defending in a passive 5-3-2, but when they have to counter-press, defend in transition or even defend set pieces, they are one of the worst teams in this entire tournament.
In addition to that, if Dominik Szoboszlai gets neutralized, Hungary have nobody else that can cause Switzerland's defense problems.
I have Switzerland projected at -141, so I love the value on them at +125.
Pick: Switzerland ML (+125 via DraftKings)
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