The draw for the remainder of the 2023-24 Champions League took place on Friday in Switzerland, setting the table for the final eight teams of Europe's most elite club competition. For the second consecutive season, the bracket is quite imbalanced with Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Manchester City all drawn onto the same half of the bracket.
The four betting favorites to lift the trophy at Wembley in June were those three clubs plus Arsenal entering Friday's draw, and only one of them can now make the final upon the release of the full bracket.
Manchester City remain the favorite to lift the trophy and repeat as champions, but they'll face off against Real Madrid in the quarterfinal. Arsenal have a poor history against Bayern in the last decade of the Champions League, but they're lined as a toss-up to make the semifinal. Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, PSG and Barcelona have a wonderful opportunity to make the final, but they themselves are projected to be in relatively even quarterfinals that begin on April 9-10 and conclude April 16-17.
Here are my Champions League watchability rankings, along with my instant reaction and bets to reach the semifinal.
1. Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
Given the recent history between these two clubs, this is the clear choice for most exciting quarterfinal matchup. Real Madrid pulled off a stunning comeback in the second leg of the 2022 semifinal and beat City 6-5 on aggregate in extra time. They later went on to upset Liverpool in the final despite City and Liverpool being the consensus two best teams in the world that year. They met again in the semifinal last year, and after a 1-1 draw in Madrid, City beat Madrid 3-0 at home and eventually conquered their Champions League demons en route to the club's first ever CL trophy.
This quarterfinal will be the fourth meeting between the two clubs in the knockout round in the last five years. Most importantly for Real Madrid, defender Eder Militao and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois could both be back from long term injury by April.
Manchester City are the biggest favorite (-225) of all eight teams to advance to the semifinal and remains the clear favorite to win the entire tournament at +180. City weren't challenged at all in the group stage in a relatively weak group and had the easiest round of 16 matchup against Copenhagen.
Liverpool and Arsenal have shown in the Premier League that City aren't invincible, but Real Madrid and Manchester City did both play RB Leipzig as their lone common opponent. City outscored them 6-3 across two legs and out created them 4.0-1.0 in expected goals.
Real Madrid beat Leipzig 2-1 on aggregate but actually were out created 2.4-2.2 on xG and could never separate from the German side. The case for Real Madrid is their ability to deliver in the most high leverage moments and rely on elite finishing and shot stopping to overcome deficiencies in other parts of the pitch.
Maybe they pull off the inside straight again, but Manchester City remain a cut above. My projection has City -202, so no bet for me, but I expect City to reach the semifinal and set up a clash against a Premier League foe.
2. PSG vs. Barcelona
Both clubs exist in a current state of relative turmoil. For Barcelona, the financial problems and Xavi's imminent departure have combined with a poor league performance to create a potential lost season for the Spanish supergiant. Unless Barcelona chase down Real Madrid in La Liga or makes a cinderella run in the Champions League, Xavi will depart the club with no trophies in his final season.
It's hard for Barcelona to look across the league at Real Madrid's superstar budding young talent — Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Edouard Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni and soon Kylian Mbappé — and feel good about their long-term positioning relative to their biggest rival.
This Champions League draw has presented a real opportunity for Barcelona to make the final. They're lined as a toss-up against PSG, who have the best player in Europe and a collection of young and unproven talent around him. Mbappé's departure has manager Luis Enrique teaching his young squad how to play without the French superstar. Mbappé will be available for this match though, and the entire handicap of the tie is how much Barcelona is able to keep PSG from playing in transition.
Barcelona's lack of midfield ball winning and transition defense has been evident since August and it has cost defensively. They allowed 0.82 xGA per match in La Liga last season and are now conceding 1.03 per match. When you factor in a decline in shot stopping, Barca have allowed 34 league goals this year already compared to 20 all of last season.
The biggest question for Barca is whether Pedri and Frankie de Jong can return in time for this match. If not, it projects to be an end-to-end matchup with neither side able to effectively keep control. My projections make Barcelona a slight favorite to advance, but injuries give PSG a real chance to move on.
3.Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich
Arsenal have not been in the Champions League since the 2016-17 campaign, when the Gunners lost 10-2 on aggregate to Bayern Munich in the round of 16 toward the end of the Arsene Wenger era. The two clubs have not met competitively since then, and they will do so in this quarterfinal. Like the PSG-Barcelona matchup, the oddsmakers have this lined as a tossup, and I don't really agree.
Bayern are a complicated case this season because their underlying numbers have been so dominant in Germany and their European stats haven't lived up to that standard. Bayern were in a very friendly group with Galatasaray, Manchester United and Copenhagen and had just a +2.4 xG differential in six group matches. Bayern ultimately got through comfortably in the second leg against Lazio, but the first leg performance in Rome was legitimately mediocre.
In four European away matches, Bayern have scored 5.1 expected goals and conceded 5.5. This is a higher level matchup than PSG and Barcelona, but the style of the two managers means this could be an extremely tactical matchup over two legs. Both Mikel Arteta and Thomas Tuchel like slow build-up possession to generate chances. The primary difference between the two sides is their counter-pressing ability out of possession, and that is where I believe Arsenal have the advantage over their German counterparts.
The Gunners are the best defense in Europe this season, and they've conceded less than 1.1 xG in all three matches against Manchester City and Liverpool in the PL. Combine that with their defense in Europe, where they have allowed one expected goal or less in seven of eight matches, and that defense should carry Arsenal into a CL semifinal more often than not.
From a storyline perspective, this is a fun matchup because of Spurs legend Harry Kane facing off against old rival Arsenal. Kane has 14 goals and three assists in 19 matches against Arsenal. My projection has Arsenal closer at -136 to advance, and I'd bet them at -125 or better to win this tie.
My belief is that Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal are the three best teams in Europe this season.
The Bet: Arsenal to advance (-115 via FanDuel)
4. Atlético Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund
This is not your older sibling's Atlético Madrid, and with this draw, it makes Diego Simeone's side an interesting candidate to reach the final. The Spanish side came from 2-0 down on aggregate to tie Inter Milan and then beat them on penalties on Wednesday in Madrid. It's still a good defensive side, even if it's not quite as dominant as years past. But this Atlético team is getting consistently elite production from their elder statesmen attackers — Antoine Griezmann, Alvaro Morata and round of 16 hero Memphis Depay.
These are the two worst teams remaining in the Champions League field, and Dortmund's defensive deficiencies are the reason they should be an underdog in this matchup. The German side had a negative expected goal difference in the group stage and rode a hot goalkeeper and poor opponent finishing to qualify as group winners. That top place in the group earned them a favorable draw against PSV, and Dortmund beat them 3-1 on aggregate across two legs. The underlying box score showed it was a roughly even matchup and PSV missed multiple big scoring chances to level the tie in Dortmund. PSV created more expected goals overall and exposed real weaknesses for the German side in defensive transition.
Jadon Sancho has found his form on loan at Dortmund, but it won't be enough to overcome Atlético Madrid's other advantages.
