Lionel Messi and Inter Miami begin their quest for the 2024 MLS Cup and a domestic double when they host Atlanta United in Game 1 of their round one series on Friday night.
The top-seeded Herons come into the postseason off a 6-2 win on Decision Day over the struggling New England Revolution, a result that boosted Miami's regular season haul to 74 points to break the Revs' previous MLS points record of 73.
Ninth-seeded Atlanta already began their postseason by prevailing on penalties at eighth-seeded Montreal following a 2-2 draw on Tuesday. That followed a dramatic Decision Day in which they snagged the last spot in the Eastern Conference bracket via their win over Orlando, D.C.'s home defeat to Charlotte and Philadelphia's home loss to Cincinnati.
Atlanta have taken four points from these teams' two meetings this season, including a 3-1 win in South Florida that was Miami's only league loss with Messi on the field.
Read on for my Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United pick.
Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Inter Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -275 | 3.5 -135o / +105u | -275 |
| Atlanta United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +200 | 3.5 -135o / +105u | +550 |
- Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United moneyline odds: Inter Miami -275, Atlanta United +550, Draw +400
- Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United over/under: 3.5 goals (over -135, under +105)
- Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United picks: Messi to score two or more goals, Atlanta team total over 1.5
I am backing Lionel Messi to score two or more and the Atlanta team total over 1.5 in Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United
Inter Miami Preview
What has been remarkable about Miami's run to the Supporters' Shield is that, in terms of results, they picked up points at nearly the same rate in the 15 games Messi missed as in the 19 games Messi played.
The 37-year old Luis Suarez was a major part of that, matching Messi with 20 goals to make the former FC Barcelona stars the first ever MLS teammates to hit the 20+ plateau in the same regular season.
But Suarez also missed time with his role for Uruguay at the 2024 Copa America and Miami still prevailed more often than not, suggesting this is an elite collection of talent by MLS standards, not just a team with two of the greatest attackers the league has ever seen.
However, when you look more closely you see Messi brought an irreplaceable explosiveness to the proceedings. The Herons posted a +25 goal differential in the games he appeared in against only +5 in the games he didn't. If you account for the time he was on the field versus the time he was off it, that ratio edges even higher from +26 to +4.
What's also interesting is that his presence didn't bring nearly as sizable of a boost in Miami's expected goals performance. They had a +2.4 xGD in the games he played and a -0.8 xGD in those he missed.
Atlanta United Preview
Since Messi's arrival, Atlanta are the only team to have beaten the Herons in South Florida with Messi in Tata Martino's starting XI. But how much the confidence from that win carries over to this occasion is subject to plenty of doubt.
It was a far more inconsistent Atlanta team at the time, but also one with two elite attacking talents in striker Giorgos Giakoumakis and attacking midfielder Thiago Almada, who both played exceptionally well in that 3-1 win in late May. Those men have since transferred to foreign clubs.
And while that result was impressive, it was the exception to a woeful spring that ultimately led to the firing of manager Gonzalo Pineda in early June.
Under interim manager Rob Valentino, the same inconsistencies have continued to plague Atlanta. But maybe they're finding a greater sense of their new identity over the last several weeks.
They've played to a +1.9 xGD over their last five games and lost only once in their last seven in all competitions. Summer signing Alexey Miranchuk is at least part of the reason, having contributed three goals and two assists in those seven matches following a slow start.
Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United Prediction
You're paying an awfully high premium to back Miami in any form here, even if they are likely to be victorious here. The only wager I might think has value on the Herons' side is Messi to score two or more at +285 and an implied 26% probability.
That's something he's accomplished on six occasions in his 19 appearances so far this season. And in MLS, his best performances have generally come in the larger spotlight, whether it be in last year's Leagues Cup run, this year's Supporters' Shield-clincher against the Columbus Crew or this year's record-setting game against the Revolution.
But where there may be more value is backing Atlanta to score two or more goals at +190 and an implied 34.5% probability. One of the most pronounced changes under Valentino is that Atlanta have become more goals dangerous on the road. Miami have conceded two or more eight times with Messi playing, astoundingly winning five of those games.
And if the first year of the MLS best-of-three round one format in 2023 is an indication, the playoff stakes may not depress scoring as much as you'd think.
Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United Picks: Messi 2+ Goals (+285 via bet365), Atlanta Team Total over 1.5 (+190 via FanDuel)
How to Watch MLS Playoffs: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, Florida |
| Date: | Friday, October 25 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Apple TV |
