Inter Miami vs Real Salt Lake Odds
| Inter Miami Odds | -188 |
| Real Salt Lake Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 3 -125 / +105 |
Lionel Messi returns for the start of his first full season in MLS when Inter Miami open their 2024 campaign at home against Real Salt Lake on Wednesday night.
Messi's arrival last summer was as exceptional as anyone could've hoped, with the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner scoring 10 goals during the Herons' storybook run to the Leagues Cup title. But the wear and tear of that dramatic beginning eventually caught up with the 36-year-old, who only made six league appearances and couldn't help Miami make a dramatic late charge into the MLS Cup Playoffs.
Salt Lake on the other hand reached the second season before they were eventually eliminated in a best-of-three, round 1 series against Houston. And they'll begin the season with Pablo Ruiz back healthy after the influential midfielder saw his 2023 campaign halted in August by knee surgery.
This is the teams' first-ever meeting, given that Miami only joined MLS in 2020 and Salt Lake is in the opposite conference.
Read on for my Inter Miami vs Real Salt Lake prediction.
Inter Miami
Messi remains the obvious focal point for Tata Martino's Miami squad as the 2024 campaign begins, but the cast of capable supporting pieces in attack has grown.
Messi's former Barcelona teammate Luis Suarez will make his MLS debut Wednesday in what he says is his final professional season after he was Brazil's player of the year at Gremio in 2023. Martino's former Atlanta United midfielder Julian Gressel was acquired in a trade from Vancouver. The club is said to be negotiating for Houston's Franco Escobar, another of Martino's former Atlanta charges who did not dress in Houston's 2-1 CONCACAF Champions Cup defeat at St. Louis on Tuesday.
A relatively healthy and productive Suarez in particular may be the key to ensuring that Miami doesn't run out of gas as they did down the stretch in 2023, even after Messi returned from a brief injury layoff.
The Herons didn't have a single double-digit league scorer in 2023, with Ecuadorean Leo Campana coming closest with nine goals. Josef Martinez — another former Martino Atlanta charge who won the 2018 MLS Golden Boot there — was ineffective enough that Miami let him leave for Montreal.
Another departure is defensive midfielder Gregore, who was transferred to Brazil's Botafogo for Miami to become compliant with league roster rules.
Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake also fizzled out in some respects down the stretch last season after they put together a nine-match league unbeaten run in June and July.
The loss of Ruiz in August was a pivotal moment. The Chilean box-to-box midfielder has blossomed into RSL's most important player since Pablo Mastroeni took the managerial reigns, and after he was lost in a 4-0 Leagues Cup round of 16 defeat to LAFC, the Claret-and-Cobalt went just 4-5-1 (W-L-D) down the stretch, a spell that ultimately resulted in losing their grasp on home-field advantage in the postseason.
Meanwhile, Cristian Arango will aim to build on his return to MLS after he scored five goals in 11 appearances — nine starts — following his summer move from Pachuca in Liga MX. The Colombian could ultimately prove to be a coup for RSL after he led LAFC with 16 goals in their 2022 MLS Cup championship campaign.
But it might concern Mastroeni how little service Arango received in dangerous positions with RSL. He only had 0.35 xG per 90 minutes in his first season at Salt Lake, which was less than half the rate of the chances he received in each of his two seasons at star-studded LAFC.
RSL were one of the best road teams in MLS in 2023, winning eight away league games against only six at home despite better xG numbers that were solidly better in Utah than outside it.
Inter Miami vs Real Salt Lake
Prediction
Miami's Leagues Cup performance defied xG data, which often said they had only played even to or marginally better than opponents they defeated by multiple goals. But if you looked closely, the over-performance followed a trend.
Essentially, opponents had trouble playing within themselves in the first time they played against Messi, often gifting the Herons opportunities in an atypical fashion. Something psychological may have been at play in terms of the circus atmosphere that surrounded those matches, which Miami had become accustomed to well before their foes.
While it's a small sample, the performances of teams that faced Messi a second time also suggest this. Nashville SC and Charlotte FC were both far more sound and mistake-free in their second showings.
Of course, this is Salt Lake's first time in this environment, one that will be amplified even more as the season opener. And I suspect the moment may get the better of them.
So I'm playing Miami to cover a -1.5 goal spread at +152 odds and an implied 39.7% probability. It cashed in four of the six home games Messi started against MLS teams in 2023, and half of RSL's six games last season where their opponents were -150 favorites or better.
If the two-way handicap line gets much below +130, your better move might be tying a Messi win to a wager over 2.5 or 3.5 total goals. All of Miami's wins with Messi in the fold featured plenty of goals.
