Champions League Odds & Picks for Inter Milan vs Benfica (Tuesday, Oct. 3)
Mondadori Portfolio/Getty. Pictured: Marcus Thuram.
Inter Milan vs Benfica Odds
| Inter Milan Odds | -182 |
| Benfica Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
A rematch of a Champions League quarterfinal from last season will take place on Tuesday in Milan as Inter Milan host Benfica. Inter and Benfica entered group play as the two favorites to advance in the betting market, but Inter dropped two points at Real Sociedad and Benfica lost 2-0 at home to RB Salzburg to send this group into some parity. Inter remain the clear betting favorite to win the group, but all three of Benfica, Salzburg and Sociedad have about the same odds to make the knockout stage.
Inter won comfortably on aggregate in the quarterfinal last year with a 2-0 win in the first leg and an eventual 3-3 draw in the second leg that was 3-1 Inter in the 87th minute. Benfica will be without Antonio Silva after he conceded a penalty and red card in the first match against Salzburg. The defense has struggled early on Portugal and while the market rating is quite high on this team, I find them to be generally overvalued in the Champions League.
Here is my preview ahead of the Inter Milan vs Benfica Champions League match.
Inter Milan
Inter rotated Lautaro Martinez for their weekend match against Salernitana. Once tied at half, Simone Inzaghi brought on their top striker and he scored four times in 27 minutes en route to their comfortable 4-0 away victory. Martinez is in the midst of a red hot finishing run with nine goals in the league from 4.7 xG. Inzaghi also rested Henrikh Mkhitarayan in the attacking midfield, choosing to play Davy Klassen and Alexis Sanchez instead.
He clearly had one eye on this key Champions League fixture and I'd expect Marcus Thuram and Martinez to start up top in this 4-4-2 system. Inter have been even more lethal in transition this year after replacing Edin Dzeko and Romelu Lukaku's minutes with Thuram. Thuram is averaging 1.5 passes and 2.3 carries into the penalty area already this year and he's adding three shots per 90 and 0.7 xG + xA per 90.
His elite forward production is more all-around than the players he's replaced. Inter are still a bit light when it comes to ball winning and I do expect some defensive regression from them in the future since losing Marcelo Brozovic in midfield, but they have a ton of passing range in their back line. Between Benjamin Pavard, Alessandro Bastoni and Stefan de Vrij, Inter are one of the best technical passing back lines in Europe. You can try to manically press them and Benfica are sure to try that, but Inter's experience and quality should shine through.
Benfica
Roger Schmidt has set up Benfica to be a relentless pressing team when presented the opportunity. They like to build-up slowly with short passing and then high press to win the ball back with a very low PPDA (passes per defensive action). The defense will be without one of its center backs without Silva here due to suspension and there's real questions of whether Schmidt's approach will be effective against a team with the passing quality of Inter.
Inter are excellent at playing through pressure — just pull up a clip from the Champions League final against Manchester City — and have a lot of technically good players in possession and close control. Benfica's defensive numbers in Portugal have nosedived this season thus far. They conceded just 23 xGA last year in 34 league matches in the Primera Liga, which was first overall.
Thus far, Benfica are eighth-best in xGA and have conceded at least 1 xGA in all but two matches domestically. The attack is still creating chances at elite rates in Portugal, but there's also real questions about how good the talent is since losing top ball progressor Enzo Fernandes last January and elite striker Gonzalo Ramos to PSG this summer.
You can't take much away from the match against Salzburg because of the early red card, but the defensive flaws look real and Inter should be able to find space in transition.
Inter Milan vs Benfica
Pick & Prediction
If Inter get as low as -120 on the three-way moneyline, I'd bet them at home as the solidly better team. Now that the moneyline has drifted north of -130 at most places, I'm instead targeting the total. Benfica's defensive regression has already shown up in both Portugal and the Champions League.
The market may still be catching up to Inter's attacking firepower with Thuram in the lineup and despite their elite numbers thus far, I still have questions about how good Inter's defense really is.
I'd bet over 2.5 at -125 or better.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-125)
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