Inter Milan vs Lazio Odds
| Inter Milan Odds | -154 |
| Lazio Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -120 |
Napoli defeated Fiorentina in the first semifinal of the Supercoppa Italiana on Thursday, booking its spot in Monday's final in Riyadh. The second semifinal will feature the second- and third-placed teams from Serie A last season as Inter Milan battles Lazio. These two teams have trended in opposite directions this season as Inter sits two points clear at the top of the table and Lazio has dropped to fifth in the league table through 20 matches.
The story of the year in Serie A has been the significant drop-off in goals and attacking quality. There are only three teams in the entire league averaging more than 1.5 expected goals per match — Juventus, Inter and Napoli. Seven different teams have conceded fewer than one expected goal per match and six have failed to create at least one xG per match.
The xG per shot has declined league wide, and while Inter's attack is excellent overall and has mostly avoided the league-wide trend, the total sits a bit high given the quality of these two defenses.
Let's dive deeper into this matchup and offer an Inter Milan vs. Lazio prediction and pick.
Inter Milan
Inter Milan's decision to move on from Edin Džeko and bring in Marcus Thuram from Borussia Mönchengladbach in the summer has dramatically improved its attacking output this season. Both Lautaro Martínez and Thuram are at peak age and near career-best season performances with 0.68 and 0.59 xG per 90, respectively.
Thuram and Martínez both scored in a Dec. 17 matchup between these two clubs in Serie A, which Inter won at Lazio, 2-0. The total expected goals in that match were 3.1 and there were seven chances created with an xG rating of 0.2 or higher. Lazio created two big scoring chances and finished neither, in part because of the elite shot stopping of added goalkeeper Yann Sommer.
Sommer has saved 3.4 goals above expected, based on the quality of shots faced on his goal this season. It's a major edge for Inter, which has outperformed its xGA defensively as a result of Sommer's high-quality shot stopping.
Inter's defense has improved alongside the shot stopping improvements. It conceded barely less than one expected goal per 90 last season, and this season it's closer to 0.75 per match. If you compare Inter's box entry and ball stopping numbers, the loss of Marcelo Brozović in midfield seems to matter. It ranks eighth in box entries allowed and 10th in crosses allowed, but the penalty area defending doesn't allow quality shots to be had.
Given Lazio's decline in attacking output this year, it's hard to see them creating a ton in a slow-paced matchup.
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Lazio
Lazio's attack is above average for Serie A standards and the Biancocelesti have an above-average xG difference in Italy for the first time in the last 2.5 years. No longer is Lazio dramatically overpeforming its xG at both ends of the pitch, as Lazio's actual plus-4 goal differential closely mirrors its plus-4.5 season-long xG differential.
The Biancocelesti have legitimately improved their underlying defensive numbers this season in Italy, and it's not as though they've been bad in Europe either. Outside of one match against Feyenoord on the road, their defense mostly subdued Feyenoord (at home) and Atletico Madrid (in both legs). The Lazio defense ranks second in Italy in expected threat allowed and third in box entries.
Their pressing numbers have fallen off this season relative to years past under Maurizio Sarri, and the result is that they're considerably more difficult to break down. Lazio was unsustainably efficient at turning high turnovers into chances and goals the last two years. This year, its passes per defensive action is just 14th in Italy. The result is fewer high turnovers forced and lower attacking output, but improved defensive solidity.
Lazio will force other teams into long, drawn out possessions that don't really threaten the goal. It's a perfect recipe for lower-scoring environments and lessens the opportunities for Inter to excel in transition once breaking a potential Lazio counter press.
Inter Milan vs Lazio
Betting Pick & Prediction
Lazio and Inter have both seen their defenses improve year over year as a part of an ongoing trend in Serie A. As the two clubs meet for a one-off semifinal on a neutral site after lengthy travel, the value lies in betting against goals.
Inter and Lazio both rank inside the top five in Serie A for 10-plus pass sequences. Inter's attack has taken a huge leap forward this year and the market has taken notice of that, but the lack of pressing and the solid defenses suggest this game should be lined closer to 2.25 overall.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-125 or better)
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