International Soccer Odds, Picks, Predictions | Argentina vs Paraguay & More

Did you miss international soccer? Well, it's back and better than ever as we have important matches for the European Championships, Africa Cup of Nations, World Cup Qualifiers in South America and more.

For those who are unaware, I created the Action Network's International Soccer Power Rankings for all 209 countries. Those rankings help me project lines for any given matchup across the world.

If you'd like to see projections for every single match for both Euro and CONMEBOL qualifiers, make sure to follow me on twitter, which is where I will post them.

Spain vs Scotland

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Scotland pulled off a pretty big upset the first time these two met in qualifying, beating Spain 2-0 at Hampden Park.

It was just the second match in the post-Luis Enrique era for Spain, but there have been little changes to Spain's style of play. Their new manager, Luis de la Fuente, is no stranger to the Spanish national team. He managed them at the 2021 Olympics and has been coaching in their youth system for a long time.

The principles of Spain are going to stay the same. They want a high amount of possession, building out of the back with a lot of short passes to break down their opponent, but a couple small things have changed under de la Fuente. Unlike Enrique, who put too much value in his center backs being good in build up rather than actually being good defenders, de la Fuente has put more of an emphasis on selecting more defensive-minded center backs like Osasuna's David Garcia.

Another big principle is utilizing his fullbacks getting forward in attack. Barcelona's Alejandro Balde has shined in this new system, which is very similar to the system he plays at Barcelona under Xavi. As you can see, he's one of the best fullbacks in the world at ball-carrying and progressing the ball up the wing to create chances for the forwards.

There is a problem that lies in this matchup and it's something they struggled with in the first meeting with Scotland. They are going up against at team that has outstanding players in wide areas. Those include Andrew Robertson, Nathan Patterson and Aaron Hickey. Plus, Scotland are rock solid in the middle of the pitch with the likes of Scott McTominay, John McGinn and Billy Gilmour.

Under Steve Clarke, Scotland are naturally a very passive team that want to primarily play in transition. They typically set up in a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 out of possession, looking to clog up the middle of the pitch and force teams to beat them in wide areas because they have such good fullbacks. Since Euro 2021, Scotland are only allowing 1.10 xG per 90 minutes and have only conceded eight goals in World Cup and Euro Qualifying.

The problem that exists for Scotland is they really lack stable attacking options. Che Adams and Lydon Dykes are the current striking partnership, and when Scotland have played good competition, they've struggled to create chances. Their last five matches against good competition in World Cup or Euro Qualifying (Austria, Denmark, Spain, Norway) they've only created 4.87 xG.

The situation for both of these teams is pretty clear too. Scotland are at the top of the table and are clear of third place Norway by eight points with three matches to play, so they really only need a draw. Spain are up two points with a game in hand on Norway, so three points is vital and what is typical with the Spain once they get a lead is they want to sit on it when they are playing an opponent that is dangerous in transition.

I only have 1.92 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+125 via FanDuel)

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Colombia vs Uruguay

I am not sure that the books have fully adjusted to the drastic change to Uruguay's style of play since the World Cup.

Uruguay went from a passive 4-4-2 mid-block under Diego Alonso to former Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa, who employs perhaps the most aggressive pressing tactics that world soccer has ever seen. He prefers to play out of a 4-3-3, pressing opponents high with reckless abandonment, which often leaves his defense very exposed and creates high even-style matches. Through two competitive matches we've already seen seven total goals and 5.6 expected when they faced Ecuador and Chile, who aren't really offensive powerhouses in South America. Under the previous two managers when Uruguay were more of a passive defensive block type of team their matches were still averaging 2.9 xG and they were conceding 1.30 xG per 90 minutes.

Playing that aggressive against a Colombian side that has a plethora of pacey attackers is quite frankly a mistake, and Bielsa better hope that his side is effective with their high press.

Néstor Lorenzo has been in charge for 10 matches now with the Colombian national team and his tactical set up is perfect to play a Bielsa team. His managerial resume is pretty short. He was an assistant for the Colombian National team from 2012 to 2019 and then spent about two years in Peru, managing FBC Melgar. What is clear with his tactics is he wants his wingers and fullbacks to get high up the pitch. He wants his teams to play fast-paced vertical football and he can do that with the wingers he has at his disposal.

Liverpool's Luis Diaz and Bournemouth's Luis Sinisterra are two of the fastest wingers in South America, and they have the ability to rip this Uruguyan defense apart if they get into 1-v-1 situations. Even though there was only one goal scored combined in Colombia's last two World Cup Qualifying matches against Venezuela and Chile, there were still a total of 5.1 xG created and over the past two years Colombia's matches have averaged 2.82 xG per 90 minutes.

So, I love the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+133 via BetRivers)

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Argentina vs Paraguay

Even though Argentina can put up goals in bunches because they have Lionel Messi, their style of play naturally leads towards more lower scoring type matches.

Take their World Cup Qualifying match against Ecuador as an example. What Argentina were trying to do for the entire match was overload the middle of the pitch. Ecuador were not trying to press them in when they were building up in a 3-2-5, but once they got the ball into the final third, they were often five players in the middle of the pitch trying to create space for Messi to come receive the ball. Ecuador countered by playing a very narrow 4-4-2 out of possession to not allow Argentina to have numerical advantages in the middle.

Because of that it meant that Ecuador would often be in 1 v 1 situations in wide areas against Argentina's fullbacks who had gotten forward. They were fine with this because Argentina's fullbacks are not anywhere close to as elite as to what they have in the middle of the pitch. Molina and Acuna aren't the types of fullbacks that are going to change a game or help you consistently win 1 v 1 battles in wide areas.

So, it has become a little more effective for opposing defenses that are capable of playing low blocks to defend successfully against Argentina for long stretches of a match until Messi does something like this.

Paraguay are starting a new era under Daniel Garnero as their manager against Argentina. He's been managing mainly throughout South America and has spent the last few seasons at one of the biggest clubs in Paraguay. He promises to play more attacking football as Paraguay were held scoreless in their opening two World Cup Qualifiers against Peru and Venezuela, but that is a hard thing to do against one of the best defensive teams in the world.

Over the past two years, Paraguay have averaged just 1.15 xG per 90 minutes in World Cup Qualifying throughout South America and currently don't have many options in attack other than Newcastle's Miguel Almirón. Brighton's Julio Encisco is the type of player with ball carrying that could cause a lot of problems for the Argentinian defense, but he is currently injured.

Argentina's are only allowing 0.86 xG per 90 minutes over the last two years because of how much possession they hold, and they have fantastic transition defenders like Enzo Fernendez, Leandro Paredes and Christian Romero.

I only have 2 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+100 via bet365)

Austria vs Belgium

Should Belgium really be a road favorite at Austria?

The performances have improved under Dominico Tedesco and he has changed the identity of the Belgian National Team. So far throughout Euro Qualifiers he's called up a number of young players, as Belgium's "Golden Generation" is now on the way out. What Tedesco has changed is turning Belgium into a more transition, "route one" football team with youth and pace on the wings.

However, coming into this match, Belgium are a little depleted in terms of their depth. Kevin De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois are out for an extended period of time, along with Romeo Lavia in the midfield. The team that faced Austria in the previous meeting was an interesting one from Tedesco. He switched to a 3-5-2 because he knew Ralph Ragnick would play some sort of narrow 4-4-2, trying have numerical superiority in the middle of the pitch.

He played a back three of Artur Teatre, Wout Feas, and Leander Dendoncker with Jermey Doku and Dodi Lukebakio as the wingbacks. That doesn't really put much fear into you if you are the opponent and the match ended up being a pretty stale affair ending 1-1 with xG about even as well.

Xaver Schlager and Konrad Laimer are outstanding pressing midfielders and are perfect for the system Ralph Ragnick wants to employ. Ragnick has been around a long time and we know by now that he is one of the creators of the 4-2-2-2 system that RB Leipzig have used very often throughout their history. Austria are not a team that need to have possession to be successful, instead they are looking to play in transition.

Austria will be without their best defender David Alaba for these qualifiers, but they still have a solid backline pairing of Lens' Kevin Danso and Freiburg's Philipp Lienhart. Maybe the biggest boost to Austria is the return of Sasa Kalajdzic who is their best forward. He's missed the better part of a year due to a torn ACL, but he now gives Austria and aerial threat in the middle of the box, along with being a great finisher as well. He was a 0.45 xG per 90 minute striker and scored 22 goals over two seasons in the Bundesliga.

I really don't think Belgium should be a road favorite in Austria given how the last match between these two went and given how depleted their squad is. I have Austria projected as a slight home favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet.

Pick: Austria – Draw No Bet (+100 via bet365)