Aston Villa look to win their sixth straight match when they travel to Portman Road to take Ipswich Town.
Ipswich are really fortunate to be sitting with three points right now. They got an equalizer at the death against Southampton in a match where they were thoroughly outplayed, which makes it three straight draws for the Tractor Boys. The underlying numbers do not look pretty right now for Kieran McKenna's side, so this one could get out hand very quickly.
Aston Villa have been red hot as of late winning five straight matches in all competitions. The Villans have shown that last seasons top four finish was no fluke and they are now one of the six best teams in the Premier League. They've taken care of business against lesser competition so far, but this is a tough spot with Bayern Munich on deck in the Champions League and it's also a great matchup against the worst team in the Premier League.
Let's dive into Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa.
Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Ipswich Town Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -145o / +105u | +310 |
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -115 | 2.5 -145o / +105u | -115 |
- Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa moneyline odds: Ipswich Town +310, Aston Villa -115, Draw +270
- Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa over/under: 2.5 goals (over -145, under +105)
- Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa pick: Aston Villa ML
I am backing the Aston Villa ML in Aston Villa vs. Ipswich Town.
Ipswich Town Preview
Ipswich have done nothing offensively. Kieran McKenna cannot play the style he wants to because they aren’t able to even control the ball. They are holding 37% possession on average, but what is maddening is they are still trying to build out of the back and utilize short passes to play through an opponent's press. Per markstats, Ipswich are losing possession on average in a dangerous area 27 times per match, while holding that low of possession. That is how terrible they have been trying to play through Premier League level defenses.
They also have generated nothing offensively, creating 3.2 expected goals through their first four matches. Half of that came against Southampton, which is the first time they have created over one expected goal this season. Through five matches, they are averaging 6.1 box entries per 90 minutes. For context, last season Sheffield United averaged 8.5 box entries per 90 minutes, so if things continue the way that they are going, Ipswich may go down as one of the worst offensive teams in Premier League history.
For the first time against Brighton, McKenna conceded that they couldn’t press high or even play a mid-block without getting played right through, so he had them in a very low defensive shape and they did a really good job of limiting Brighton’s chances. He did not do that against Southampton and the Saints were able to create four big scoring chances and create 2.4 expected goals. When Ipswich play in their mid-block, they don’t provide enough pressure and teams are very easily able to overload and play through the middle. Per markstats, Ipswich are allowing an 88.4% opponent build up percentage, which is by far and away the highest mark in the Premier League.
Aston Villa Preview
Aston Villa’s underlying numbers have been much better than last season. If you take away penalties, they have won the expected goals battle in every single match this season. Aston Villa are really good build up team and the new midfield partnership between Onana and Tielemens has really been working. The goal is to bait the opponent into pressing to try and get the ball into the second phase and use their skilled dribblers to run at the opposing defense. It's usually a 4-2-4 shape, which gives them a numerical advantage in the first phase and really helps them beat the first line of the pressure.
Once they are able to start running at the opposing defense, they have one of the better strikers in Ollie Watkins. He's elite at making runs off the opponent's back, as Aston Villa have already completed 10 through ball this season, which is the highest mark in the Premier League.
One thing Aston Villa did during the transfer window was make a conscious effort to add a lot of depth to their squad in anticipation for situations like this when they have a huge Champions League match coming up. Additions like Ross Barkley, Ian Maatsen and Jaden Philogene allows Aston Villa to be able to rotate their squad and not have a big drop off from their starting XI.
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa Prediction
This line is way too low for Aston Villa.
It is a bad spot for Unai Emery’s side having a huge home match with Bayern Munich coming up on the weekend, but they were laying a similar price against Leicester a few weeks ago and completely dominated them. You could make an argument that Ipswich are a worse team than Leicester right now, so this line doesn’t make a whole of sense to me.
The main issue is I don’t think they have a Plan B. McKenna’s side dominated possession in the Championship and the moves they made in the transfer market were not designed to give this team an option of being a transition-based team, which is what they need to be if they are only going to hold 37% possession on average.
This price is way too cheap for how bad Ipswich have been this season. From a market perspective, there is no way they should be rated higher than Leicester, so the only thing that makes this price justifiable is the spot.
I have Aston Villa projected at -168, so I love the value on them at -105.
