Ivory Coast vs DR Congo Odds
| Ivory Coast Odds | +115 |
| DR Congo Odds | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+187 / -250) |
| Time | How to Watch | Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET | beIN Sport |
| Odds via book. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
AFCON host nation Ivory Coast are looking for some more magic to reach the final when they take on DR Congo.
It's taken penalties in the round of 16 and a 122nd-minute winner while playing with only 10 men for the Ivory Coast to get to the semifinal, but they are here. They did all of these heroics on an interim manager as well, as Jean-Louis Gasset was sacked after their 4-0 loss in the group stage to Equatorial Guinea. After playing back to back matches with extra time, we will see how fresh their legs are.
DR Congo are surprisingly into the AFCON semifinals. They missed out on the tournament in 2021, but after beating Egypt and Guinea they are one win away from the final. They've been playing much better football lately as opposed to the years prior, so this could be a fantastic opportunity to get to their first ever AFCON final.
Here is my Ivory Coast vs DR Congo prediction.
Ivory Coast Preview
It's pretty crazy that the Ivory Coast are even in the semifinals to be honest. They were severely outplayed by Senegal, but they were awarded a late penalty to send the match to extra time and they eventually won it on penalties. Against Mali, they saved a penalty inside the first 20 minutes, went down to 10 men in the second half and scored a 90th minute goal to send it into extra time. Then in extra time they scored in the 122nd minute to get into the semifinals.
The reality for the Ivory Coast is they haven't been that great in this tournament. What has been lacking is offensive firepower, which was a big concern coming into the tournament. The Ivory Coast have a fantastic center back pairing and three fantastic ball winning midfielders, but they don't have a lot of prolific goal scorers. They have only created 4.9 non-penalty expected goals in their five matches, plus two extra time periods because of a lack of a striker. Sébastien Haller was thought to be the main man up top, but the Ivory Coast have opted for Jean-Philippe Krasso instead, which hasn't yielded great results.
The defensive numbers haven't really been that impressive either, conceding 5.7 expected goals in five matches and for this match they will be without Leverkusen's Odilon Kossonou, who is arguably their most talented defender. Out of possession, the Ivory Coast have been one of the most aggressive teams in terms of their high press, ranking second in PPDA and high turnovers, but without the cover of their best center back, it does leave them a bit vulnerable defensively.
DR Congo Preview
DR Congo being in the semifinals is a bit surprising if you knew how bad their underlying metrics have been over the past two years. There is no doubt that there is talent on this squad, because per transfermarkt.com their total squad value is $110 million with the likes of Chancel Mbema (Marseille), Yoane Wissa (Brentford) and Simon Banza (Braga). With that being said, over the last two years in Africa they had a -2.4 expected goal differential coming into this tournament.
However, they are starting to finally realize their talent because of the tactical changes Sébastien Desabre has made.towards the end of AFCON Qualifying switched them to a 4-2-3-1, trying to play more possession-dominant football with more modern tactics. What else came with the change was aggressive counter pressing to try a suffocate a lot of the opponents that they'd be facing in Africa who play low block and only look to play direct. Because they have a talented center back like Chanel Mbema, it allows DR Congo to be aggressive and press opponents high.
Per the Analyst, DR Congo lead the Africa Cup of Nations in high turnovers, PPDA and pressed sequences, showing how effective they have been with that high press.
The underlying data has been incredibly impressive for DR Congo as well. They've won the xG battle in all five of their matches and have a +4.7 expected goal differential overall, so it's kind of surprising to see them as this big of an underdog.
Ivory Coast vs DR Congo Prediction
Usually in these international tournaments, playing back to back matches that go into extra time has a big toll. Look what just happened to South Korea in the Asian Cup or Croatia at the World Cup in 2022. Not to mention we have been playing this tournament in 90 degree heat with humidity.
DR Congo and Nigeria have been the two most impressive teams during this tournament and for DR Congo to be underdogs here after how good their underlying numbers have been in is a bit of a slap in the face.
There is a great opportunity to fade the Ivory Coast, whose home field advantage has basically been negated by the fact that they have played back to back matches in extra time.
So, I like the value on DR Congo to advance at +158.
Pick:DR Congo to Advance (+158 via FanDuel)
