Ivory Coast vs Nigeria Odds
| Ivory Coast Odds | +125 |
| Nigeria Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +160 / -211 |
The headliner of the group stage of the Africa Cup of Nations takes place on Thursday with the host nation Ivory Coast taking on Nigeria in Group A.
The Ivory Coast won their opening match 2-0 against Guinea-Bissau, but it was less than impressive. The hosts have a ton of talent in their midfield and defense, but the attack is severly behind a lot of the other top nations in this tournament. They will be put to the test on Thursday, as Nigeria are the best team they have played in the better part of two years.
Nigeria were incredibly unlucky to draw with Equatorial Guinea in their opening match, which now puts them in a position where they need to beat the Ivory Coast if they want to win this group and get a good draw in the knockout stage. The Nigerians have loads of talent, but haven't put the results together, so we'll see if Thursday they can finally get a deserved result given the performances we've seen from them lately.
Read on for my Ivory Coast vs Nigeria prediction.
Check out our bet365 promo code to get the most out of your AFCON bets.
Ivory Coast
Nigeria had one of the most unlucky draws that you will ever see against Equatorial Guinea in their opening match. The Nigerians created 3.4 expected goals and five big scoring chances, but only were able to put one of them in the back of the net.
🇳🇬 Nigeria 1-1 Equatorial Guinea 🇬🇶
On paper, Nigeria were expected to win this game. Based on the quality of chances in the match, they'll be very disappointed to have not done so.#AFCON2023pic.twitter.com/Irl0AubJhe
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 14, 2024
The reality for Nigeria is they have some of the best underlying numbers in Africa, putting up a +1.25 xGD per 90 minutes over the last two years in Africa, but they have been unable to get the results that they deserve.
What José Peseiro has done tactically to Nigeria has really allowed them to flourish and play to the strengths of their personnel. He’s switched them to a 4-4-2 or 4-1-4-1 to attack teams transitionally through the center of the pitch. Nigeria don’t need to have the ball to be successful, in fact they are much better playing very direct through Osimhen with Moses Simon and Ademola Lookman out wide providing width.
Get in on the action today with our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Nigeria
The Ivory Coast played pretty well in their opening match against Guinea-Bissau, but it’s very clear that their attack is nowhere near the level of some of the other top teams in Africa.
They went with a front line of Jeremie Boga, Jean-Philippe Krasso, and Jonathan Bamba, which doesn’t really put much fear into opposing back lines. Boga is an elite ball carrier and creator on the wing, but he doesn’t provide much of a goal scoring threat. Bamba is only a 0.29 xG + xA per 90 minute winger at Celta Vigo this season, and Krasso at striker is the biggest concern because he plays for Red Star Belgrade in the Serbia Super League and has barely even featured throughout his career in Ligue 1 when he was with Saint-Etienne.
Even though the Ivory Coast scored twice, they only created 1.4 xG against Guinea-Bissau and shots were even at 11 to 11, so it really wasn’t that dominant of a performance.
Jean-Louis Gasset has been at the helm since May of 2022 and will typically set up in a 4-3-3. In terms of talent in the midfield they have just as much talent as anyone in this tournament. Seko Fofana and Franck Kessie are playing in the Saudi Pro League, but they are still playing at a high level, while Ibrahim Sangare is starting to become a mainstay in the Nottingham Forest starting XI.
While those three are fantastic ball winners, there is no natural attacking midfielder to consistently supply the attack, which was very evident in their first match against Guinea-Bissau as it was a lot of ball carrying between those three without a lot of line breaking passes against a low block. That is a problem here against a Nigeria team that is going to sit in a low defensive block and dare them to try and break it down.
Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State! Stay up to date on the latest news about Fanduel North Carolina.
Ivory Coast vs Nigeria
Prediction
The market is clearly in love with the host nation, but here is the reality. Over the last two years in Africa, Nigeria have a +1.25 xGD per 90 minutes, while the Ivory Coast are at +0.42 per 90 minutes.
Nigeria are going to set up in their low defensive block that has been very successful from an underlying data perspective and they will hand the ball to the Ivory Coast and dare them to break them down, which I am not sure they are going to be able to do.
Even though the Ivory Coast have great ball stopping midfielders and a good center back pairing, this is the best attack they have seen in forever in Africa.
I actually have Nigeria projected as a favorite here, so I love the value on the +0.5 at -138.
