The 2nd leg of the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal between the USA and Jamaica is taking place tonight in St. Louis.
On Thursday, the USA came out on top with a narrow 1-0 win off a goal from Ricardo Pepi. That away win put the USA in a great spot heading into the return leg.
So, let's get into my USA vs. Jamaica prediction for tonight's CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal match.
USA vs. Jamaica Prediction, Odds
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 2.5 -130/+100 | -215 |
| Jamaica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 2.5 -130/+100 | +600 |
- USA vs. Jamaica moneyline odds: USA -215, Draw +350, Jamaica +600
- USA vs. Jamaica over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -130, Under +100)
- USA vs. Jamaica pick:USA To Win & Over 1.5 Goals
I am backing USA To Win & Over 1.5 Goals in the USA vs. Jamaica match.
USA Soccer Pick
The USMNT got the victory in Mauricio Pochettino's competitive debut as head coach, following a win against Panama and a loss to Mexico in friendlies. The USA started the game with intent from the get-go, with Ricardo Pepi scoring after only 6 minutes. His run in behind the defense was well met by Christian Pulisic's through ball following a turn in the middle of the field. Jamaica replied by penalty in the 36th minute following some sloppy American defending and Matt Turner tripping Shamar Nicholson. The keeper made amends by saving Demarai Gray's penalty and keeping a much needed clean sheet.
Pulisic's positioning on the goal says a lot about the freedom Pochettino is granting him. While he was usually asked by Gregg Berhalter to stick to the left wing and beat opponents one-on-one, it seems Pulisic now has the license to roam and affect play at a higher rate. He has played a few times for his club, AC Milan, as a center attacking midfielder so this is something we can expect to see more from the USA captain.
Timothy Weah will make his comeback to the team after a two-game suspension and will likely start the right wing, pushing Yunus Musah to his more familiar midfield position. Following Johnny Cardoso's injury, Musah has a spot to earn in the double pivot used by Pochettino.
Overall, this game played out as expected. The pitch conditions did not allow for smooth passing patterns from both sides, and goal-scoring chances were scarce, with each team only recording 2 shots on target. Following an impressive first 20 minutes from the USA, the game slowed down and they held on to their 1-goal advantage without too much effort (besides the possible handball by Tim Ream) controlling the midfield with an impressive 61% possession.
Jamaica Soccer Prediction
Jamaica will look back in disappointment in a game where they should have scored. After trailing early, the Reggae Boyz showed strength and dedication, earning a penalty after multiple defensive errors from the USA. Demarai Gray missed it, and Jamaica only recorded one more shot on goal for the rest of the game. Jamaica looked a lot better after some second-half substitutions, but a 86th-minute red card from Mason Holgate killed off any chances of coming back in this game.
Jamaica looked to get the ball up the field quickly whenever it had the chance and capitalize on mistakes, as seen in the play resulting in the penalty, when Joe Scally sloppily gave the ball away and Nicholson was found in an instant. Jamaica knows the USA backline is not at its best right now, especially without Chris Richards who is injured. Nicholson, physical play was a constant poison for center backs Mark McKenzie and Ream. Leon Bailey is their best attacking player yet they struggled to find him in the right position.
Mason Holgate will miss this game, so it will be interesting to see if Steve McClaren decides to continue with the 3-4-3 used. With two center midfielders, Jamaica struggled to contain Pulisic whenever he drifted toward the middle and created an overload, leaving space for Antonee Robinson on the left. Counter-attacks will once again be Jamaica's best hope to threaten the USA.
USA vs. Jamaica Prediction
The USA showed glimpses of what they were capable of under Pochettino, especially the dynamics between Pulisic and Robinson on the left. On the defensive end, however, a lot of work still needs to be done. The defense still struggles to play out of the back and Tim Ream's age is starting to show, but I don't think this will be enough for Jamaica to gain a significant edge.
The field they are playing on in St Louis is miles better than in Kingston for the first leg, which will give a slight edge to the USA who will attempt to incorporate some more intricate passing patterns. The USA will advance. I have little doubts about it.
USA vs Jamaica Pick: USA To Win & Over 1.5 Goals
