Getafe at Real Madrid Odds, Pick
| Getafe odds | +750 [BET NOW] |
| Real Madrid odds | -265 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +360 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-118/-106) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Thursday at 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | beIN Sports |
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Only six more matches stand between Real Madrid and the La Liga title. Los Blancos have a one-point lead and a game in hand over Barcelona, who dropped two more points in a draw with Atletico Madrid earlier this week.
Real Madrid are -835 favorites to win the league but there are still a couple of significant hurdles between them and a 34th championship.
Madrid will try to clear one of those obstacles on Thursday in a showdown with a stubborn Getafe side that ranks fourth in La Liga in expected goals against.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
| Real Madrid | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.94 | 1.31 |
| Expected goals for per game | 2.07 | 1.34 |
| Goals against per game | 0.68 | 0.94 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.02 | 1.13 |
| Total goals per game | 2.61 | 2.25 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.09 | 2.47 |
Real Madrid have been outstanding since La Liga returned to action last month. Los Blancos are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal differential since the pause and their results are basically in line with their underlying metrics, though they have been running a tad hot offensively.
Zinedine Zidane has his team playing well all over the pitch but Madrid's defense deserves the lion's share of the accolades at the moment. Real Madrid have more clean sheets (3) than goals allowed (2) over their last five matches and they're conceding only 0.53 xG per match in that span.
Even though Madrid is likely to take all three points on Thursday, I don't think there's any value laying the -265 on the moneyline against a strong defensive side that has no problem parking the bus for 90 minutes and hoping for the best.
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Getafe certainly need a win if they want to keep their dim Champions League hopes alive, but it isn't their style to go out and try to outscore their opponents — and trying to do so against Real Madrid likely wouldn't end well.
Instead, I expect Jose Bordalas to put 10 men behind the ball and try to nick a goal on the counter. Barring any mistakes, the Azulones figure to be tough to break down and this game has the makings of a defensive slugfest.
I also can't see any reason for Madrid to go out play a high-risk style of football. Los Blancos have no problem biding their time and relying on their defense to keep things tidy until one of their stars finds the back of the net. With the title in their sights, I expect a pragmatic approach from Zidane's men.
These defenses speak for themselves and the gamescript figures to be a good environment for a play on the Under 2.5.
