Unlike most other European leagues returning from winter breaks, this will be the second slate of La Liga games in 2022, with all 20 teams set to play.
The title race in Spain is down to Real Madrid and Sevilla, with Los Blancos holding a five-point advantage as we enter the second half of the campaign. All remaining places are up for grabs, which should set up interesting races at the top and bottom of the table.
For this weekend's action, the headliner will be played Sunday when Champions League foes Villarreal and Atlético Madrid, square off. It's a very important fixture for European qualification next season. The first contest between the sides was a 2-2 thriller, ending with a 95th-minute own goal by the Yellow Submarine.
The schedule also includes possible look-ahead spots for Real Madrid and Barcelona, plus a clash between two top-six teams in Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis.
There’s plenty of value across the betting board, but here are my three best bets on for the weekend card.
La Liga Best Bets
Real Sociedad vs. Celta Vigo
| Real Sociedad Odds | -125 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +360 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Our first bet comes from Basque country where Real Sociedad hosts Celta Vigo in a game I see all of the value on the visiting side.
Over their last five league matches, the Sky Blues have posted a +1.3 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, in wins over Real Betis, Espanyol and Alavés, and a draw at Mallorca.
Meanwhile, Sociedad’s last La Liga victory came back on Nov. 7 against Osasuna, which has a winless streak of six to go along with a -2.5 xGDiff during that span.
The home-and-away forms for both clubs also favors Celta Vigo, where the visitor ranks fourth in the Spanish top flight in away points with 15, compared to Sociedad’s mid-table home record.
You also have to wonder how star striker Alexander Isak is handling the transfer rumors surrounding him, which have the Swedish striker linked to multiple clubs for a January move away from Sociedad.
This could be the buy-low spot with the home side, but I think Sociedad is still getting priced like the team that had the impressive start and not the current form of the squad.
Give me the club on better form at a plus price.
Pick: Celta Vigo +0.5 (+110)
Granada vs. Barcelona
| Granada Odds | +360 |
| Barcelona Odds | -135 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
I’m backing another in-form underdog for my second wager, where I find the more popular club overvalued.
Unbeaten in its last six games in La Liga action, Granada is in the middle of its best form of its campaign, picking up wins over Atlético Madrid, Mallorca and Alavés to go with a trio of draws.
The club has won the xG battle in four fixtures during that time frame to produce a +0.4 xGDiff in the process.
For the visitors, Barcelona hasn’t been as good away from home this season, picking up just two wins out of nine fixtures and settling for five draws along the way. Plus, this could be a spot where manager Xavi will be resting players for a midweek cup semifinal against rival Real Madrid in Saudi Arabia.
In order to lose this full bet, Barcelona has to win the match by multiple goals, which it has only done in four of 26 matches (15%) across all competitions.
That said, I'm backing Granada on the Asian Handicap via the +0.75 spread and will play it up to -130 odds, but I don’t hate the value of taking the home team at +0.5 at a better price.
Pick: Granada +0.75 (-110)
Villarreal vs. Atlético Madrid
| Villarreal Odds | +175 |
| Atlético Madrid Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The Sunday headliner of the betting card features Villarreal and Atlético Madrid at El Madrigal, which I feel is yet another opportunity to back a live underdog.
Before the midweek Copa del Rey loss, the Yellow Submarine won six consecutive matches across all competitions and was putting up the best attacking numbers in the Spanish top flight.
If you look at its last five league affairs — plus the Champions League victory over Atalanta — manager Unai Emery’s side has averaged 2.6 xG, 3.83 goals and 15.83 shots per match during that span.
One key reason to the attacking improvement has been the return of Gerard Moreno, who missed a majority of the first half due to injury. Villarreal's star striker has scored seven goals in the last four La Liga games.
Meanwhile for Atlético, things just haven’t gone well lately for the defending league champion, which had lost four on the bounce before last week's victory over Rayo Vallecano last week.
Three of those losses came away from home for manager Diego Simeone’s team, and Atléti’s only big away win this season came in the Champions League at Inter Milan back in September.
This game means much more for Villarreal, who desperately needs points to stay in the race for a UCL place next season. I’m backing the home team on good form for La Liga’s biggest game this weekend.
Pick: Villarreal — Draw No Bet (-105)
