La Liga action is in full swing this weekend with all 20 teams hitting the field for the third week of the season, where I’ll be looking at a trio of home teams to get results for my best bets.
My attention begins with Elche hosting Real Sociedad on Saturday, with the home side seeking its first win of the campaign. Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano has gotten off to a wonderful start and looks to continue that solid run at home against Mallorca.
For my final wager on Sunday, I feel Espanyol could pull off the biggest weekend shock when Champions League and La Liga winner Real Madrid comes to town as a huge favorite.
We have put together a pair of winning weeks to open the season. So, let’s go for the hat trick with my three top wagers this week in the Spanish top flight.
Our La Liga Best Bets
Elche vs. Real Sociedad
| Elche Odds | +300 |
| Real Sociedad Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -165) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In the first game I circled, the visiting side enters a bit overvalued, which is why I’m backing Elche getting +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at -125 odds at BetMGM as my opening play.
The hosts did suffer a 3-0 defeat on the opening day against a tough Real Betis team, but the goals came after a red card in the 16th minute.
This is still a Sociedad side that can struggle to score, especially without the key attacking duo of Alexander Isak (transfer) and Mikel Oyarzabal (injury).
Newcastle are set to sign Alexander Isak from Real Sociedad, medical in England as clubs have completed the agreement on €65m fee and €5m add-ons, club record signing: here we go. ⚪️⚫️🤝 #NUFC
Deal will also include a sell-on clause for Real Sociedad. pic.twitter.com/bmYzwGG7Oc
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 25, 2022
By The Numbers
- 20 — If Isak and Oyarzabal miss this match, La Real will be missing a duo that combined for this many league goals last season.
- 50% — The strike partners teamed up for half of Sociedad's goal tally in the 2021-22 campaign and there won't be replacements in time for this match.
Pund's Pick: Elche +0.5 (-125)
Rayo Vallecano vs. Mallorca
| Rayo Vallecano Odds | +107 |
| Mallorca Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -160) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Rayo Vallecano had a successful campaign in the Spanish first division last season as one of the country's smallest clubs and the team has gotten off to a solid start through two matches.
Manager Andoni Iraola’s team held out for a great draw at the Nou Camp against Barcelona before handling Espanyol second time out with a 2-0 win.
After putting up strong numbers at the Estadio de Vallecas a season ago, Rayo should be too strong for a Mallorca side that has consistently struggled away from home soil.
By The Numbers
- 7 — At home last season against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table, Rayo only failed to win two out of nine matches and posted a +7.2 xGDiff in those games, according to fbref.com.
- 1 — On the road against similar competition, Mallorca only picked up one win to go along with seven losses and -5.1 xGDiff overall.
Pund's Pick: Rayo Vallecano ML (+107)
Espanyol vs. Real Madrid
| Espanyol Odds | +550 |
| Real Madrid Odds | -215 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160 / +130) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In my final best bet of the weekend, Real Madrid enters the match as the expected road favorite, but it's a bit overpriced in my opinion. That said, I’m backing Espanyol getting +1 at +110 odds over at PointsBet as my top pick.
Los Blancos will likely be a heavy public side in this affair, which could mean you could wait longer to get a better price on +1.5 at -160 odds.
Espanyol picked up some big results at home against the top teams in Spain last season, including a 2-1 victory over the reigning champion in this same fixture. Needless to say, I think this price is too good to pass up.
By The Numbers
- 8 — This same bet would have cashed in all but two of Espanyol’s home fixtures against top 10 teams in the 2021-22 season.
- 14 — There is a lot of talk about the club likely losing star striker Raúl de Tomás and his 17 goals from last campaign. However, the team added forward Joselu from Deportivo Alavés who also netted 10-plus goals in La Liga a season ago.
Pund's Pick: Espanyol +1 (+110)
