As we enter the final three months of the La Liga season, we have a full slate of games this weekend and all 20 teams in the Spanish top flight in action.
Real Madrid enters the weekend with a six-point lead over Sevilla for the league title. Meanwhile, five teams are within four points of each other for the races for the third and fourth Champions League places for next season.
Sevilla has a great opportunity to put pressure on the league leader with a win Friday to kick off the card before Los Blancos hosts sixth-place Real Sociedad for the late game on Saturday. Villarreal and Barcelona will look to continue their great form with away games, making way for the Sunday headliner between Real Betis and Atlético Madrid.
We’ve had winning picks in our best bets in three of the last four weeks, so we’re looking to keep that going in another important weekend in Spain.
La Liga Best Bets
Osasuna vs. Villarreal Odds
| Osasuna Odds | +260 |
| Villarreal Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
If you have been following these articles, you know how highly I rate this Villarreal side, and I’m going to back them again at a plus price here.
You just have to look at the last 10 league games to see why this is my first best bet. During this stretch, the Yellow Submarine has posted a +13.8 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, and outscored its opponents by a 29-8 margin.
The only teams Villarreal has dropped points against during this span came in draws with both Madrid sides, as well asa loss to Elche.
As one of the clubs chasing the two UCL spots for next season, manager Unai Emery’s team can’t afford to slip up now. The Yellow Submarine also doesn't have any midweek games to worry about, with the second leg against Juventus still two weeks away.
It's an absolute steal to get one of the hottest teams in all of Europe at a plus price, so we’re going to keep riding Villarreal until the results turn.
Pund's Pick: Villarreal ML (+105)
Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | -165 |
| Real Sociedad Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
For my second best bet, I’m looking at the big game in the capital where I think goals could be at a premium.
The particular play I like here is the Both Teams to Score (No) bet that's being offered at even money at DraftKings.
If you start with the league leaders, the same bet has cashed in the last six games across all competitions and in seven of 13 (54%) La Liga home matches. This is the same side that has continued to improve defensively throughout the season, which shows in the advanced metrics.
In their last 10 league games, Los Blancos have held opponents to an average of 0.85 xG per match, moving into the top five in the category for the season in the Spanish first division.
This bet has also been profitable recently in Real Sociedad league fixtures, getting to the window in the last eight games and in eight of 13 (62%) road contests.
You have a Madrid side that has its eyes on the midweek Champions League match with Paris Saint-Germain. Meanwhile, Sociedad would be perfectly fine with a draw, which I think should give us a great shot to secure a winning bet.
Pund's Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (+100)
Real Betis vs. Atlético Madrid Odds
| Real Betis Odds | +200 |
| Atlético Madrid Odds | +135 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -130) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
My final best bet is a vital game for European qualification next season, and unlike the last match I highlighted, this one screams goals to me.
If you start in games with Betis, the total has gone over 2.5 goals in seven of the last 10 La Liga games and in seven of 13 (54%) matches at home. Manager Manuel Pellegrini’s team ranks fourth in the Spanish top flight in xG per 90 minutes (1.52) and second in shots per game (14.0) this season.
You then have to look at how Atlético’s away games have been this season, holding the highest combined goals per game average in the league (3.54) and finishing with more than 2.5 goals in 11 of 13 (85%) on the road.
Make sure you are paying attention to the lineups as they are announced for this one as Betis is fresh off a Copa Del Rey semifinal second leg on Thursday and has an upcoming midweek Europa League game. You’ll want to make sure there’s a good combination of Juanmi, Willian José, Nabil Fekir or Sergio Canales is in the starting 11 for this match.
Another possible way to attack this game is to take the Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager at anything better than -130 odds, but I’ll take my chances at the total for my best value in this match.
Pund's Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-110)
