La Liga is back in full swing this weekend, with every team in action and races happening at the top and bottom of the league that are still wide open.
Saturday's headliner features Valencia’s trip to the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium to take on Atlético Madrid, where the visitors could move within one point of the final Champions League spot for next season with a win. However, Atlético Madrid is always one of the best teams at home, where they only have one loss this season under manager Diego Simeone.
Title chasers Real Madrid and Sevilla have home fixtures, while Barcelona closes out the slate with a Basque Country derby with Deportivo Alavés on Sunday's slate.
After a couple of weeks of mixed fixtures due to cup competition, it's great to finally get a full schedule of games. Here are my three best bets in the Spanish top flight.
La Liga Best Bets
Villarreal vs. Mallorca
| Villarreal Odds | -255 |
| Mallorca Odds | +700 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
For my first bet, I only see goals when high-flying Villarreal welcomes Mallorca.
The Yellow Submarine has been on top form recently and creating a ton of chances, averaging 2.44 expected goals per match in their last five league games, according to fbref.com. Over that same span, the fixtures have averaged 3.04 combined xG per game and gone over the total of 2.5 goals in all but one of them.
You also look at how manager Unai Emery’s side has performed at home. Villarreal has had the highest percentage of its home games clear 2.5 goals (64%), plus the highest average combined goals (3.55) this season.
As for Mallorca, its league games away from home have averaged 3.10 goals per match. Meanwhile, the same bet would have cashed in five of the last seven away games across all competitions.
Villarreal’s early-season struggles have put the Yellow Submarine in catch-up mode in order to qualify for the UCL next year, so we should see a very motivated squad that is pushing for goals following the loss last week.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
Sevilla vs. Celta Vigo
| Sevilla Odds | -140 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
It’s always great to start a Best Bets article with an over, but this next bet is a complete contrast from the first betting angle.
Sevilla has been one of the top defensive teams in all of Europe, ranking first in La Liga in goals allowed (14), second in xG allowed per match (0.94) and third in big scoring chances surrendered (17) this season.
On the flip side, the Andalusian side has really struggled offensively lately, averaging just 0.76 xG per match over the last five league games. The combined xG average of that stretch was just 1.64 goals.
Celta Vigo’s matches have also seen low combined xG numbers, posting an average of just 2.18 goals per game over the last five fixtures. If you take out the game against Real Betis (3.6 combined xG), the average drops to 1.83 expected goals.
I’m going to bet the total staying under 2.25 goals at -115, as I think the price is too big to get the full 2.5 goals at -150 odds. If you can find something closer to -130 or if you don’t mind laying -150 juice, I think the under 2.5 goals is a great play as well.
Pick: Total Under 2.25 Goals (-115)
Atlético Madrid vs. Valencia
| Atlético United Odds | -215 |
| Valencia Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
My final play of the weekend comes from a match between two of the more historic clubs in Spain.
While it hasn’t been the best season for Simeone’s team this campaign, I think this is a great spot to back the home team to win in a shutout at +115 odds.
Atlético Madrid's defensive numbers at the Wanda have been incredible, holding sides to an average of just 0.53 xG per outing in the league. Only Real Sociedad (70%) have had a higher percentage of home clean sheets than the former champions (67%) thus far.
If you look at Atlético Madrid's home wins, all five have been to nil, including clean sheets against Barcelona, Athletic Club, Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano. And all of those sides are better than the visitors in this match.
Valencia could also be without midfielder Carlos Soler, who is second on the team with seven league goals and has missed the last few games due to injury.
Regardless if he plays, Atlético Madrid is due some positive regression at some point, and I think Simeone will have his team ready to play in this match.
