Following last weekend’s opening matches, La Liga returns this week with a full slate of games across Spain.
My focus begins with Real Betis making a trip to Mallorca, with the visitor looking for its second victory of the campaign. Meanwhile, Athletic Bilbao hosts Valencia in a fixture where I’m not expecting a lot of goals.
For my final best bet in the Spanish top flight, Villarreal is another road team that I feel has great value, as the club heads to the Spanish capital to take on Atlético Madrid.
We got off to a winning start to the campaign on debut. So, let’s try to keep the hot start going with my three favorite wagers.
La Liga Best Bets
Mallorca vs. Real Betis
| Mallorca Odds | +195 |
| Real Betis Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Betis capped off a great season in 2021-22 by winning the Copa del Rey for the third time in club history, so manager Manuel Pellegrini will be pushing his team for Champions League qualification this season.
Pelligrini’s side returns most of the group from the prior campaign, which showed its strength in the dominant 3-0 win over Elche last weekend.
At the other end of the table, Mallorca is looking to escape relegation for a second consecutive season, but this is going to be a difficult test against a quality Betis team.
By The Numbers
- +4.3 — On the road against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table last season, Betis owned a positive xGDiff, according to fbref.com and went undefeated (six wins; four draws) in those 10 matches.
- 3rd — Only Real Madrid and Barcelona finished with more points away from home than Pelligrini’s team in the previous campaign.
Pund's Pick: Real Betis ML (+145)
Athletic Bilbao vs. Valencia
| Athletic Bilbao Odds | -140 |
| Valencia Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
We were able to get to the window with a winning ticket involving Valencia last week, so we’re going back to it by betting the total to stay under 2.5 goals at -135 odds at BetMGM this time around.
One of the main reasons for the play was because of the departure of Gonçalo Guedes, who left to join Wolverhampton in the Premier League after tying for the most goals at the club last season.
Manager Gennaro Gattuso is likely going to miss his former attacker against an Athletic team that allowed the third-fewest expected goals per 90 minutes last season in the Spanish first division.
By The Numbers
- 38% — Guedes played a hand in more than a third of Valencia’s goals last season, which will be a big loss until he's replaced.
- 0.70 — At home last campaign, Athletic Club held opponents to this xG per match mark, which includes this same fixture where the Bats registered just 0.1 xG overall.
Pund's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135)
Atlético Madrid vs. Villarreal
| Atléti Odds | -110 |
| Villarreal Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In the marquee match of the slate, I feel like the hosts are a bit overvalued in the fixture, which is why I’m backing the Yellow Submarine getting +0.5 goals via the Asian Handicap as my final top pick.
This is the same Villarreal team that brought back most players that led the club to the Champions League semifinal round last season.
However, Atlético is always tough at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium under manager Diego Simeone, but this price is too big to pass up with the visitors.
By The Numbers
- 5 — Against top-six teams on the road last season, this same bet would have cashed for Villarreal in all but one game.
- 4th — The Yellow Submarine only finished a place behind Atlético Madrid in the La Liga table when it came to xGDiff last season.
Pund's Pick: Villarreal +0.5 (-115)
