Deportivo Alaves vs. Real Sociedad Odds and Pick
| Deportivo Alaves odds | +325 (BET NOW) |
| Real Sociedad odds | -104 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +225 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+132/-165) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | beIN Sports |
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Thursday's La Liga slate kicks off with fourth place Real Sociedad heading to the Mendizorroza Stadium to take on Deportivo Alaves.
Real Sociedad have a lot at stake with Getafe drawing with last place Espanyol on Tuesday. A win could provide them a three point cushion from Getafe and Atletico Madrid (depending on their result Wednesday) for the final Champions League spot.
Alaves are sitting comfortably seven points above the relegation zone, so a win would secure them another season in La Liga.
Alaves
Babazorros El Glorioso came back from the break sluggish, losing 2-0 to last place Espanyol. The result wasn't shocking as they are the 17th ranked team on the road when it comes to expected goals.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Most of their success this season has come at Mendizorroza Stadium. With 23 points in 14 matches, Babazorros El Glorioso boast a +4.32 goal differential at home.
Defense has been their calling card so far this year, as Alaves only allow 0.95 expected goals per game at home, which ranks sixth in La Liga. Before the world came to halt, Alaves were in good form at home, earning seven of a possible 12 points, with a +2.01 goal differential. Alaves will be a tough outfit for Real Socieded to break down Thursday.
Real Sociedad
It has been a dream season for Real Sociedad. It's the highest they've been in the table since in seven years. However, expected points shows they should be lower in the table, as they rank seventh in expected goal differential of +9.98.
In their first game back from the break, Real Sociedad were disappointing, drawing with Osasuna at home. The expected goals report showed that they struggled to create decent scoring chances as well.
Real Sociedad games have been high scoring this season for La Liga standards, with 2.69 expected goals scored per game. Additionally, their last eight matches have seen an average of 2.96 expected goals per game. It's easy to see why 68% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
Previous Meeting
Real Sociedad blitzed Alaves 3-0 in the reverse fixture at the Anoeta Stadium in September. It was dominate performance for Real Sociedad as they created 4.10 expected goals based on the expected goals report.
Analysis
Based on my model I don't see any value in backing either side in this match:
- Alaves projected odds: +268 (27.15% win probability)
- Real Sociedad projected odds: +111 (47.31% win probability)
- Draw projected odds: +292 (25.54% win probability)
- Alaves projected xG: 1.13
- Real Sociedad projected xG: 1.52
I have a total of 2.65 expected goals being scored in this game. Since the odds of the over of 2.5 goals is at +132, I like the value on over 2.5 goals.
