La Liga: Getafe at Granada Odds and Picks
| Getafe odds | +148 (BET NOW) |
| Granada odds | +235 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +185 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 2 (+110/-134) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Friday, 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | beIN Sports |
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For those used to the high-scoring pace in the Bundesliga, this match will represent a gigantic change of pace. Granada and Getafe have achieved plenty of success this season by playing a pragmatic, defensive style of soccer.
Granada have taken a big step forward in their first season back in La Liga. El Graná are currently in ninth place and have an outside shot at a Europa League spot if they can finish the season strong.
Getafe are eight points ahead of Granada in fifth place and are tied with fourth-place Real Sociedad on points. The Azulones have a real chance to play their way into the Champions League next season.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Granada
Granada concede 1.14 expected goals per game, which is the fifth-best mark in La Liga. Most of Granada's success this season has come at the Nuevo Los Cármenes Stadium where Nazaríes have earned 26 points in 13 matches, while only conceding eight goals.
All that focus on defense has had an impact on Granada's offensive numbers as they only average 1.1 expected goals for per match. That being said, Granada was averaging 1.71 xGF per match in their last six home matches before the pause.
Getafe
Getafe has backed up a fifth-place finish last season with an even better campaign in 2019-20. With the fourth-best defensive record in La Liga (1.09 xGA per game), the Azulones have forged an identity as one of the league's sturdiest defensive teams.
However, much like Granada, Getafe has struggled in front of net this season Overall, Getafe generate 1.32 xGF per game, but that number dips to 1.2 on the road.
With easier games on the horizon, all three points for the Azulones would be huge as they try to claw their way into the top four.
Previous Meeting
Getafe won the reverse fixture, 3-1, at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez back in October. However, the expected goals report shows a different story as Granada was unable to capitalize on a couple of big scoring chances inside the six-yard box.
Analysis
Scoring first will be crucial in this match. Whoever gets ahead will likely park the bus and try to win the game, 1-0.
On paper Getafe is the better of the two sides, but based on my model, I have Granada slightly favored in this match given the home-field advantage, which of course may be muted because of the lack of fans.
Here are my projected expected goals for Granada vs. Getafe:
- Granada: 1.13 xG
- Getafe: 1.01 xG
Based on those numbers I think there's value backing Granada at +128 on the Draw No Bet line.
