Sevilla at Levante Odds & Picks
| Sevilla odds | -167 (BET NOW) |
| Levante odds | +425 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +325 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 3 (+112/-136) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Monday, 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | beIN Sports |
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La Liga rolls on Monday as third-place Sevilla heads to the Estadi Ciutat de València to take on Levante.
Sevilla should be riding high after a dominant performance against rival Real Betis. Levante marked their return by scoring a 98th-minute equalizer in a 1-1 tie against Valencia.
There are still 10 matches remaining but we are close to the point of the season where bettors have to take into account what each team is playing for. Motivation is hard to handicap, but it has to be considered.
Sevilla is a good bet to secure Champions League football in 2020-21, but their job is far from done as there are three teams within four points of Los Nervionenses.
Levante, on the other hand, are nine points clear of the relegation zone and a result on Monday would basically ensure them a spot in La Liga next year.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Levante
The expected goals models shows that Levante deserved the 1-1 draw against Valencia on Friday but it was an uncharacteristically quiet game for Los Granotas' standards.
Because of their porous defense, Levante matches typically involve a lot of goals. Los Granotas concede 1.85 expected goals per match, which is last in La Liga, and also rank at the bottom of the league at preventing non-penalty big chances (a scoring opportunity that has more than a 35% chance of going in).
It's easy to see why 57% of Levante matches have soared over 2.5 goals in 2019-20.
Sevilla
Sevilla were deserved winners over Real Betis on Thursday and now they go on the road where they've earned 24 of a possible 42 points. Sevilla has a +5.95 xG differential away from home this season, the second-best mark in La Liga.
Sevilla's last seven matches (six before the break and one after) have averaged 3.22 total expected goals and they average the fourth-most xGF per match, so a contest against La Liga's worst defense should provide Los Nervionenses with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities.
Previous Meeting
Sevilla won the reverse fixture, 1-0, on a Luuk de Jong goal in the 86th minute. Sevilla outshot Levante, 19-12, and controlled 60.6% possession in that match. The expected goals report backed up Sevilla's performance and also showed that the game should have featured more scoring.
Analysis
Based on my model I think the current line on DraftKings does not provide value for either team. However, I do have this game being a high scoring affair.
- Levante projected odds: +400 (19.99% win probability)
- Levante projected xG: 1.10
- Sevilla projected odds: -142 (58.70%)
- Sevilla projected xG: 2.01
- Draw projected odds: +369 (21.31%)
I have the total expected goals for this match at 3.11, so I see value on the Over 3 since it's at plus-money.
