All eyes in Spain will on El Classico this weekend as Barcelona look to extend the lead at the top of the La Liga table over Real Madrid.
The Catalan club comes into the weekend with a nine-point gap between itself and the heated rival, with a victory pushing the advantage to double digits.
While this is the clear headliner of the slate, there are other matches that show great betting value in the Spanish top flight, starting Saturday with Celta Vigo’s trip to Espanyol. My final play comes on Sunday with Real Sociedad hosting Elche in a match I expect the top four side to dominate.
We had a clean sweep with the picks last week, so let’s try to keep that going with this weekend’s La Liga picks.
La Liga Odds & Picks
Espanyol vs Celta Vigo
| Espanyol Odds | +175 |
| Celta Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -163) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
It is always great to start off an article by taking an over, and I believe this fixture between Espanyol and Celta Vigo is one that will feature goals.
Starting first with the host, the total flying over the total has been a profitable bet in Espanyol home matches, with 58% of those fixtures having more than 2.5 goals. This is the highest percentage in La Liga, which is joined by a league-best 67% of home matches seeing both teams score.
Against sides in the bottom half of the table, this play got to the window four times, with the matches averaging 2.76 xG per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Meanwhile, goals have also been common on road trips against lesser clubs for Celta Vigo, with this same bet hitting in 3-of-5 versus sides in the bottom 10 away from home. Celta’s road fixtures are also averaging 2.8 xG per match since the World Cup break.
I’ll gladly take the plus price for the total to go over 2.25 goals, and I also don’t hate a look at both teams scoring at -106 odds.
Pund's Pick: Over 2.25 Goals (+106)
Real Sociedad vs Elche
| Sociedad Odds | -250 |
| Elche Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:15 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The spread and moneyline prices are too big to play Real Sociedad in this match. However, I don’t expect the visitors to score.
So, my second best bet of the weekend is for Sociedad to win to nil at even money.
At home this season, La Real are giving up less than 1 xG and just 1.5 big scoring chances per match. Meanwhile, Elche have only generated 0.62 xG and 0.75 big chances per game on the road.
You also have to look at how the league’s worst team has performed against top competition. In five fixtures on the road against sides in the top six, Elche have not found the back of the net in any match, averaging 0.4 xG in the losses.
Pund's Pick: Real Sociedad – Win to Nil (+100)
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
| Barcelona Odds | +115 |
| Madrid Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The weekend headliner comes in the final match of the slate, and I expect it to be worth the wait with plenty of goals.
For starters, these two giant clubs have already met three times this season, and two of those fixtures have finished with more than 2.5 goals.
Another selling point is how the league leaders have played in high-event matches at home against top competition. This same bet would have cashed in all three Champions League games at the Camp Nou and against Manchester United in the Europa League.
The same can be said for Los Blancos away from home, with 3-of-4 on the road in the UCL finishing with at least three goals. This play also would have cashed in 2-of-3 road trips against top six sides in La Liga.
With key defender David Alaba also out with injury, I feel both attacks will have many chances to find the back of the net.
Pund's Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)
