La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Analysis For Atletico Madrid vs Getafe, Sociedad vs Valladolid (Feb 3-5)

La Liga action is back this weekend with a full slate of matches, spanning from Friday to Monday and all across Spain.

Coming into the match week, Barcelona have extended their lead at the top of the table, followed by rival Real Madrid and Real Sociedad. Meanwhile, the gap between 11th and 18th in the standings is just three points.

There is no true headliner on this weekend’s card, but that does not mean there are no games with great betting value.

I’m focusing on a trio of matches with bigger clubs facing sides towards the bottom of the league table in my La Liga picks. Let’s get back on track in the Spanish top flight.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Athletic Club vs. Cádiz

Our first play is in Friday’s standalone match, where I expect Athletic Club to keep Cádiz from scoring in a victory.

For starters, Bilbao are the best defensive side in La Liga, leading the league in the lowest averages of expected goals (xG) and big scoring chances (1.11) allowed per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

At home, the numbers get even better, dropping to 0.57 xG and 0.8 big chances per game. This is also the same team who has earned a clean sheet in 6-of-10 fixtures at San Mamés.

As for the visitors, Cádiz are tied for the fewest road goals scored (five), and only Getafe have generated fewer xG (5.7).

The issues show even more when the Andalusian club plays a team in the top half of the table, as they have averaged 0.77 xG and failed to score in 6-of-10 matches.

Pund's Pick: Athletic Club – Win to Nil (+105)

Atlético Madrid vs. Getafe

We’re sticking with the same theme for my second Best Bet as I struggle to see how this Getafe side creates enough chances consistently in this match on Saturday.

If you thought Cádiz’s road numbers were bad, the Azulones are averaging just 0.54 expected goals per away match, which is the lowest in La Liga. They are also only generating 0.64 xG per game against teams in the top half of the table.

Getafe have found a way to get on the scoresheet in more matches than they should, which is why I’m electing for a Single Game Parlay of an Atlético Madrid victory with the total falling under four goals (-134), instead of winning with a shutout.

Whenever Madrid have played a side in the bottom six, manager Diego Simeone’s squad has posted a +6.7 xGDiff and held those opponents to just 0.8 xG per 90 minutes. This same bet also cashed in 5-of-7 games, including a 3-0 victory over Getafe in the opening match of the season.

Pund's Pick: Single Game Parlay – Atlético Madrid ML & Under 4 Goals (-134)

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Real Sociedad  vs. Real Valladolid

Rounding out my very chalky card, I believe Real Sociedad’s great season will continue with a shutout victory over Real Valladolid on Sunday.

The newly-promoted club is one of the worst road teams in the Spanish top flight, owning a -13.5 xGDiff and averaging just 0.69 xG per away fixture.

Valladolid have also failed to score in 6-of-9 away from home, including the last five straight.

You also have to look at how the club has performed against the better teams in La Liga. Against sides in the top 10, Valladolid have only found the back of the net in 1-of-10 fixtures to go along with a -11.5 xGDiff.

The only thing keeping me from playing Sociedad on a spread line is the fact that they are dealing with multiple injuries in the squad. But, they were still able to pick up a clean sheet over Real Madrid in their last match.

Pund's Pick: Real Sociedad – Win to Nil (+110)