In a weekend without the Premier League, Spain has you covered with a full slate of action in La Liga, headlined by Real Madrid playing Real Sociedad on Sunday.
Los Blancos enter the matchweek three points ahead of Sociedad in the table in second, with both clubs playing tough midweek matches in the Copa Del Rey. Bookmakers know the betting attention this match will get, and I do not see any value at the current odds being offered.
However, there are plenty of other options that I feel are worth a bet in Spain this weekend, including Barcelona’s trip to Girona on Saturday. The league leaders could grow their three-point lead at the top of the table before the feature fixture in the Spanish top flight.
I’ve also highlighted Cádiz hosting Mallorca and Athletic Club visiting Celta Vigo to fill out the card. After going 1-2 in the return last week, let’s get back on track with my La Liga Best Bets.
La Liga Odds & Picks
Cádiz vs. Mallorca
| Cádiz Odds | +187 |
| Mallorca Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+220 / -275) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
In Saturday’s early game, I really do not see the visitors coming away from the match without a result, which is why I’m pairing Mallorca Double Chance and the total falling under three goals at -125 odds.
Only one of the Vermilions’ nine road league matches have finished with more than a trio of goals, which came on the trip to Real Madrid. The average xG total per 90 minutes in those fixtures was just 2.08, according to fbref.com.
Meanwhile, the club has done pretty well against similar opposition when leaving the island. In four road games against teams in the bottom half of the table, Mallorca own a +1.6 xGDiff, and this same bet would have cashed in three and pushed in the other.
As for the host, Cádiz only have one win at home this season to go along with a -7.6 xGDiff, which is the worst in La Liga. I just don’t believe the prices match what the form and metrics for the campaign show you for both clubs.
Pund's Pick: Single-Game Parlay – Mallorca Double Chance & Under 3 Goals (-125)
Girona vs. Barcelona
| Girona Odds | +450 |
| Barcelona Odds | -175 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Following the match above, I’m going back to a play from last week to back goals in Girona’s game, especially with Barcelona’s high-powered attack coming to town. My favorite play is for both teams to score paired with the over, but I really like anything that relies on goals.
Los Albirrojos have been very entertaining at home this season, with both teams scoring in eight of nine games for an average of 3.33 goals per game – the highest in the Spanish top flight.
The advanced metrics also line up with the number of goals. On the year, Girona’s home matches have averaged 4.6 big scoring chances per 90 minutes.
A big question is whether the home side will be able to find the back of the net to cash this bet. Girona have only failed to score in 3-of-18 La Liga matches, which includes scoring against Real Sociedad, Real Madrid, Athletic Club and Atlético Madrid.
Even without Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres, Barcelona should have plenty of firepower to score multiple goals against this Girona defense.
Pund's Pick: Single-Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score – Yes & Over 2 Goals (+115)
Celta Vigo vs. Athletic Club
| Celta Vigo Odds | +187 |
| Bilbao Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+150 / -188) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
My final bet comes in Sunday’s game before the main headliner, where I really like the Athletic Club to cover the Asian handicap line of -0.25 at +125. If your book does not offer this, you can split your wager, placing half on Bilbao Draw No Bet and the other half on the moneyline.
Depending on what you give for home-field advantage, bookmakers are pricing this as if the Catalan club would only be around +130 odds on a neutral field, and I really do not see it that way against this poor Celta Vigo side.
In the five matches where Athletic have played teams currently in the Bottom six of La Liga, the Lions have posted a +6.3 xGDiff and averaged 1.98 xG per 90 minutes. They have also not lost any of those fixtures, with four of those coming away from home.
Meanwhile, Celta Vigo have only beaten one team in the top half of the league table in eight attempts, holding a -9 goal difference in those games.
Pund's Pick: Athletic Club -0.25 (+125)
