La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Villarreal vs Getafe & More

With 16 games remaining in the season, races are heating up at both ends of the La Liga table with a full slate of matches this weekend.

Regardless of the distractions off the pitch, Barcelona hold an eight-point lead in first after racking up seven straight victories in league play. Meanwhile, Real Madrid are chasing the Catalan club in second, hosting cross-town rival Atlético Madrid this Saturday in the weekend headliner.

One of my other selections for the week comes on the same day, with Rayo Vallecano and Cádiz both needing a win for different qualification reasons. My final pick is Getafe’s trip to Villarreal on Monday, where I don’t see the visitors having much success.

There are matches all over Spain this weekend, but let’s dive into my three best bets from La Liga in Matchday 23.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Cádiz vs Rayo Vallecano

Yes, I do understand how Cádiz play much better at home and Rayo’s reputation as a struggling side on the road. However, I don’t think the numbers are as bad as you would expect for the visitors.

When Rayo Vallecano have played a team in the bottom half of the league table away from home, Los Franjirrojos have only lost one of six matches, owning a -0.5 xGDiff in the process, according to fbref.com.

Meanwhile, the hosts have struggled against the better teams in the division, posting a -5.9 xGDiff against top 10 sides at home.

Another key to this handicap will be set pieces, where no club in La Liga has scored more goals from these situations than Rayo Vallecano. Only four teams have allowed more from set pieces than Cádiz on the year.

Pund's Pick: Rayo Vallecano – Draw No Bet (-116)

Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid

In the 172nd league encounter of the Madrid Derby, I think this is a great spot for both offenses to find the back of the net.

For starters, Real Madrid will be missing key defensive players David Alaba and Aurélien Tchouaméni, but this wasn’t an elite defense even with the duo. Both teams have scored in 7-of-10 matches at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, with only Girona and Almeria having higher percentages.

It also doesn’t help that keeper Thibaut Courtois has a -0.9 post-shot xG minus goals allowed this season, which would be his first time finishing in the red since joining Los Blancos.

As for the visitors, this hasn’t been the typical stout defense under manager Diego Simeone. Atlético only secured one clean sheet in one of five games in the Champions League to go along with no shutouts against top five teams in the Spanish top flight.

This same play cashed in the first meeting and in the Copa del Rey, and I think we have a great shot at that repeating.

Pund's Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-130)

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Villarreal vs Getafe

In my final best bet, the Yellow Submarine have struggled recently, dropping four straight to fall out of the European places. However, I think they’ll get back on track by blanking Getafe on Monday.

At home this season, Villarreal have only allowed 1.2 big chances and .98 xG per match, which are both near the top of La Liga. This is the same defense that has given up just 0.84 xG per 90 minutes at home to the bottom 10 clubs.

This is not good for a Getafe side that has averaged just 0.6 xG and 1.1 big chances on the road this campaign. Away from home against Top 10 sides, the averages improved to 0.68 xG and 1.5 big chances, but those marks aren't anything to boast about.

In the first meeting at Getafe, Villarreal held the opponents to just 0.3 xG and no big scoring chances in a shutout, and I feel we could see the same sort of game here.

I also don’t hate pairing a Yellow Submarine clean sheet with a victory at +140, but I’ll keep it simple in case they struggle to score.

Pund's Pick: Villarreal Clean Sheet – Yes (-110)