La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Weekend Slate, Including Real Madrid vs Valladolid

La Liga action returns after the international break with a full slate of matches spanning from Friday to Monday across Spain.

For the headliner games, four of the top six clubs will feature on Sunday afternoon, with Real Sociedad traveling to Villarreal before Atlético Madrid host Real Betis. My attention will be on the second match, where I’m expecting to see goals in an entertaining affair.

Meanwhile, my first play begins in the opening game of the slate, where I feel Mallorca will hold off Osasuna at home. I round out the bets with Real Madrid welcoming lowly Real Valladolid to the Santiago Bernabéu on Sunday.

We’ve been able to string together back-to-back winning weeks with this article. Let’s try to keep that going with my La Liga best bets.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Mallorca vs Osasuna

Who doesn’t like to open the week with a bet of +240 odds? I’m always looking to back Mallorca on the island, especially against a side that struggles to score away from home like Osasuna.

Since the World Cup break, Los Bermellones have won 4-of-6 at home, including victories over Real Madrid and Villarreal. They have held opponents to just 0.9 xG and 0.83 big chances per match during this stretch, according to fbref.com.

This is not good for an Osasuna side that is in the Bottom 5 in La Liga in xG (0.72) and big chances (1.0) per 90 minutes on the road. It hasn’t improved in the new year, with the xG average falling to 0.59 per game.

As for the total piece of this single-game parlay, Mallorca’s home fixtures have finished with less than 2.5 goals in 85% of games, the highest in La Liga. Meanwhile, Osasuna road games have the same percentage, which is also the highest in the Spanish top flight.

Once you add in the fact that this has cashed in 5-of-6 home victories for Mallorca, I like them to secure another low-scoring triumph on the island.

Pund's Pick: Single-Game Parlay – Mallorca ML & Under 3 (+240)

Real Madrid vs Valladolid

I’m fading another struggling road attack in my second best bet of the weekend, as I expect Real Madrid to win to nil against Valladolid.

Away from home this season, only Elche have generated less xG and big scoring chances than the newly-promoted club. This is also the same side that has failed to score in 4-of-6 fixtures against top-half teams and in six of the last nine road trips.

For Madrid, manager Carlo Ancelotti’s squad has been unlucky not to pick up more clean sheets against lesser opposition at home, holding bottom 10 teams to just 0.76 xG per 90 minutes.

It is a worry that keeper Thibaut Courtois is likely out for the match, but the backup Andriy Lunin has been solid when forced into action. His post-shot xG minus goals allowed record is better than Courtois this season.

There should be plenty of cover in front of him to handle Valladolid’s weak attack anyway.

Pund's Pick: Real Madrid – Win to Nil (+100)

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Atlético Madrid vs Real Betis

I may not see goals in the opening two bets, but I think we’ll have an entertaining fixture in the final play of the weekend.

Starting first with the visitors, Betis’ road matches have been very eventful, averaging 3.38 expected goals and 4.67 big chances per 90 minutes since the World Cup break. This stretch also includes a five-goal thriller at Manchester United in the Europa League.

This means Atlético are going to be very confident of finding the back of the net, especially when creating 1.96 xG and 3.57 big chances per game in their last seven at home.

I set this line closer to 2.75 goals, so I’ll gladly take the over on 2.5 at -110.

Pund's Pick: Over 2.5 (-110)