Madrid Derby: Real vs. Atléti Odds
| Real Odds | +110 |
| Atléti Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
All eyes in Spain will be on the 169th league edition of "El Derbi Madrileño" on Sunday when Real Madrid hosts crosstown rival Atlético Madrid.
Los Blancos enter the match at the top of the La Liga table as winners of nine consecutive matches across all competitions. Real Madrid is also on an unbeaten run that goes all the way back to Oct. 3.
The visitors are 10 points behind their rivals in fourth, but did secure their place in the Champions League knockout stage with a win over Porto in midweek action.
If you look at the history of this derby, it has been dominated by Real, which has won 89 of the meetings compared to Atléti's 39 victories and not lost in this historic rivalry since the 2015 season.
This is one of those games always circled at the beginning of the season, so let’s take a look to see where the betting value lies in the fight for the capital.
Questions for Real Surrounding Benzema
The big question surrounding this match is the health status of striker Karim Benzema, who picked up an injury and had to be subbed off in Madrid’s last league match.
The French star, who didn't make the bench in the UCL contest, and his 12 league goals and seven assists would be a huge loss for the team.
However, it does look like he will dress for match according to the latest reports coming from the team's camp.
When he has able to play, Los Blancos have been one of the most dominant in all of Europe, ranking first in La Liga in expected goals (27.9), goals scored (37), shots per 90 minutes (16.12) and big scoring chances created (34), according to fbref.com.
Alongside Benzema, Brazilian star Vinicius Júnior is having his best season Real, chipping in with 10 goals. The duo makes them the only club in Europe to have multiple players with 10-plus league goals this campaign.
Atléti Hoping Metrics Generate Results
After winning the league title last season, things have not gone to plan so far for Atléti. However, the advanced metrics show there might be some positive regression on the way.
Manager Diego Simeone’s team actually owns a better xGDiff (+9.4) than Real (+8.4) in the Spanish top flight which is a number that grows to +6.8 over its last five league games.
Uruguayan striker Luis Suárez leads the team with seven goals, followed by fellow South American standout Ángel Correa with four goals and four assists.
One player who hasn’t played well has been goalkeeper Jan Oblak, who ranks last in the league in post-shot xG minus goals allowed (-4.4) and save percentage at 56.7 percent.
Betting Analysis & Pick
For the latest derby, DraftKings has Real as the +110 favorite on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals.
As long as Benzema plays, my best bet for this match is to play the total going over 2.5 goals at -105 odds.
Over the last six league games, Atléti's matches have had an average of 2.67 combined xG, which is a number that grows to 3.1 in Real Madrid’s games. The same bet would have also cashed in four of six (67%) for both clubs during that same span.
You also have to look at the home and away splits for both sides. In their seven matches at home, six have gone over 2.5 goals for Los Blancos for an average of three goals per contest.
Meanwhile, six of seven away fixtures for Atléti have also cleared 2.5 goals for an average of 3.57 goals/match. Simeone’s team also had two of three UCL games go over this total on the road.
This isn’t your same Atléti team that has always been very difficult to break down, which makes this over a great value play for this huge match.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
