La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions | Match Previews For Villarreal vs. Barcelona, More (Feb. 10-12)

Soccer is in full swing in Spain this weekend with all but two clubs in La Liga in action for Matchday 21.

Following a fifth straight victory, Barcelona hold their largest lead at the top of the table, opening an eight-point gap to Real Madrid in second. The Catalan club will look to extend the winning run in this week’s headliner match at Villarreal on Sunday.

My other favorite plays of the week start with Friday’s fixture between Cádiz and Girona, where I feel the visitors have value to pick up a result. Meanwhile, I’m not expecting many goals in Real Betis’ trip to Almería for Saturday’s early kick.

This is the second slate of matches since the close of the January transfer window, and it is the time of the year when races at both ends of the table start to heat up. So, let’s dive into my three best bets in La Liga this weekend.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Cádiz vs. Girona

At first glance, Girona’s advanced metrics away from home aren’t too pleasing to the eye, but I don’t feel the numbers are as bad as they look.

In the four matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, the Albirrojos own a +0.9 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, which is much better than the overall road number of -3.2.

They have also scored in all but one of those fixtures, averaging 1.6 xG per 90 minutes in the process. I like them to find the back of the net against a Cádiz squad that is allowing 1.57 xG and 2.6 big chances per home game.

In fact, the hosts have allowed a goal in 7-of-10 matches at the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season.

Cádiz do have a knack for picking up draws at home, which is why I’m electing to lay a bigger price for the draw no bet. However, I think this is still cheap for the fixture.

Pund's Pick: Girona PK (-125)

Almería vs. Real Betis

For the different dynamic attackers on the roster, Real Betis really struggle to create consistent chances on the road, which is why I’m betting this match to fall under 2.5.

Away from home, Betis average one 1 xG and 1.1 big scoring chance per 90 minutes, which is much less than their marks of 1.64 xG and 2.5 big chances at home.

This has led to just 1.7 total goals per game being scored in those fixtures, which is tied for the second-fewest in all of La Liga.

Meanwhile, Almería are due to regress in front of goal, where they have scored 17 goals from 13.2 expected at home. This is also the same side that has only averaged 0.82 xG and 0.8 big chances against clubs in the top half of the table.

Pund's Pick: Under 2.5 (-125)

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Villarreal vs. Barcelona

In my final best bet of the weekend, this match has all the makings of a high-scoring and exciting match at El Madrigal on Sunday.

Starting first with the host, Villarreal average 1.87 xG per match at home, which only trails the league-leader and Real Madrid. The Yellow Submarine has also generated the second-best average for big chances at home with 3.33.

You also have to look at Villarreal’s fixtures since returning from the World Cup break. In those six league matches, the combined xG average has been 3.43, with that span of games including a five-goal thriller against Los Blancos.

As for the visitors, Barcelona are second in La Liga in both xG (1.82) and big chances (3) created per road match. There have also been at least three goals in 4-of-6 games away from home against top 10 sides.

One thing to monitor with this fixture is whether Villarreal striker Gerard Moreno is available, as he was reported to have missed training Thursday. If he is out, the Yellow Submarine won't have many options in attack with other injuries. That could mean the Barca ML is valuable as well.

Pund's Pick: Over 2.5 (-125)