La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions | 3 Sunday Bets For Penultimate Weekend

With two matches remaining in the season, multiple European and relegation places are still to be sorted out in La Liga, starting with a full slate of games this weekend.

All but one of the fixtures come on Sunday, which all kick off at 1 p.m. ET to add to the day's drama.

My first best bet comes in a relegation six-pointer between Almería and Real Valladolid, where I do like the home side to pick up a result. Meanwhile, I’ll also be backing Athletic Club at home against already-relegated Elche in a Single Game Parlay.

I’ll close out my article with another feisty encounter between Valencia and Espanyol at the bottom of the table. So, let’s dive in and see where the best betting value is in Spain this weekend.

La Liga Odds & Picks

Almería vs Valladolid

I can’t ignore the home and road splits for both clubs that only lead me to back Almería to get a positive result.

When playing at the Power Horse Stadium this season against the bottom 10 sides, manager Rubi’s team has posted a +6.1 xGDiff, according to fbref.com, and won seven of eight games. The only match they did not win was a draw with Cádiz.

Meanwhile, Valladolid’s -24.4 xGDiff on the road is only better than Elche, which is not great company to be in. In the four trips under manager Paulo Pezzolano, the team has allowed an average of 1.63 xG en route to losing three of the fixtures.

I would go more aggressive with this play, but Almería have multiple injuries that hold me back from giving out the full play on the moneyline or team total. However, I still think they’ll have enough to put in a good showing.

Pund's Pick: Almeria -0.25 (-101)

Athletic Club vs Elche

This next bet comes in a match that means everything to one side and absolutely nothing for the visitors, which is why I’m looking to get behind Athletic at home.

Manager Ernesto Valverde’s team comes into the weekend in eighth, tied on points with Osasuna for a place in the Europa Conference League next season. Elche are a club already destined for the Segunda Division as the bottom side of this campaign.

One of the primary reasons for being 20th in the table has been the performances on the road against top 10 clubs, where Elche have failed to score in all but one of those trips. This is also the same side that has lost all of those matches and only averaged 0.433 xG per 90 minutes.

Athletic’s defense should be more than capable of holding out the competition on Sunday. On the season, Valverde’s side has only given up an average of 0.89 big chances and 0.78 xG per home game.

Pund's Pick: Athletic Club – Win to Nil (+110)

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Valencia vs Espanyol

In my last bet, I’m once again on the home team, who I think is undervalued in this pivotal match in the fight for survival.

Valencia brought in Rubén Baraja as manager in February to get the club out of the relegation zone, and he has accomplished that with great home form against a tough schedule.

Since he arrived, Baraja’s side has picked up four wins and only dropped one game at home in La Liga, while playing Real Sociedad, Osasuna, Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Madrid over this span. They also own a +2.8 xGDiff and have scored in all but one of those league games at the Mestalla Stadium.

Espanyol also made a switch at manager late in the season, and the results have not been very positive on the road. In Luis García’s four matches in charge away from home, his team has lost three and allowed an average of 2.58 xG and 4.75 big chances per game.

I don’t hate a look at Valencia to fly over the team total of 1.5 goals at -110, but I’ll stick with the same odds on the moneyline in case we get a 1-0.

Pund's Pick: Valencia ML (-110)