There is no rest for soccer clubs in Spain as there is a full slate of mid-week action for La Liga match day 3.
The schedule starts with a pair of games on Tuesday which includes Barcelona at Rayo Vallecano. Atlético Madrid and Athletic Club follow that up with home fixtures on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s headliner is Real Madrid’s trip to the island to take on Las Palmas. It was a difficult destination for top teams last season, and I could see it being tough again here on short rest.
After a winning weekend with our plays, we look to find some more betting value in the Spanish top flight. So, let’s preview the action with our La Liga predictions.
La Liga Predictions, La Liga Picks
Action Network's La Liga Picks
To kick off our plays, I’m expecting this to be a game where Barcelona control the possession and tempo of the fixture. However, I think you have to look in the props market for the best way to bet against the home side.
With that said, my best bet for this match is for Rayo Vallecano to fall under the team total for shots on target of 3.5. I would play this down to 2.5.
This was a profitable bet when Barcelona were on the road against the bottom 10 teams last season. In those league fixtures, the Catalan club held opponents under this same total in 6-of-10 matches.
Meanwhile, this hasn’t changed under new manager Hansi Flick. In his two games in charge, Barcelona’s opponents have averaged just two shots on target and seven shots in total.
I feel that this will be a game where Rayo sits back defensively, looking to hit the visitors on the counter. This may be an effective way to keep the home side in the game, but it shouldn’t lend too many offensive numbers.
Pick: Rayo Vallecano Under 3.5 Shots on Target (-110 via bet365)
In our previous two articles, I backed goals in Atlético’s games, and I am going back to do that here at home.
My next La Liga match day 3 best bet is for this to fly over the total of 2.5 at -125. I like this bet up to -145.
For starters, we have already seen the new-look attack produce goals. Both matches for Diego Simeone’s side have gone over this same total.
If you go back to last season, this was a profitable bet in Atlético’s fixtures. In fact, 79% of the club’s home games went over this same total, which was the highest in La Liga.
Now Simeone adds Alexander Sørloth from Villarreal and Manchester City’s Julián Alvarez into the mix to only add to the firepower.
Espanyol have been competitive in its two games in the return to La Liga, but I could see Atlético topping this total by itself. There is just too much attacking talent on display here to not love goals.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-125 via bet365)
Real Madrid have already failed to come home from three points on a league trip to an island, and the Spanish giant will now look to avoid that again here.
Of all the places to go on short rest, Las Palmas may be at the top of the list for the worst destinations. However, I still can’t back the home side on the handicap.
I’m picking a similar bet that I went with above in fading the island club’s attack. My best bet here is for Las Palmas to fall under the same shots on target total of 3.5.
If you look at the back half of last season, Madrid’s defensive numbers started to show in La Liga, especially against lesser opposition. Los Blancos held five of their last six bottom 10 opponents under this total on the road.
This included this same trip back in January. Madrid also held Las Palmas under this total in the home fixture as well in the last campaign.
I could see this being a low-scoring fixture as Carlo Ancelotti finds his best attacking lineup. It also likely won’t help that the opponent here will be camping all players behind the ball defensively.
Once you add in that Ancelotti still has his stout backline, I don’t see the home side having many scoring opportunities here.
