Valencia vs. Levante La Liga Betting Preview: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Friday’s Match

Levante at Valencia Betting Odds and Picks

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The second match of Friday's La Liga doubleheader features two clubs that seem destined for some regression. Both Levante and Valencia are much higher in the table than they should be, at least according to expected points:

• Valencia Actual Points: 42 (7th place)
• Valencia xPoints: 33.91 (12th)
• Levante Actual Points: 33 points (12th)
• Levante xPoints: 27.25 (17th)

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Valencia has their work cut out for them, but they can still catch Atletico Madrid or Getafe and qualify for European competition in 2020-21.

Levante, on the other hand, is sitting comfortably in the middle of the table, eight points above the relegation zone. All three points for the Granotas would all but secure another season in La Liga.

Valencia

Pretty much all of Los Murcelagos' success this season has come at the Mestalla Stadium. Valencia have not lost at home this season and boast the third-best home record in La Liga in 2019-20.

That being said, Los Murcelagos only have a +3.06 xGD at home, indicating their results at home are not sustainable over the long run. It may look like Valencia are a sure thing at home, especially since they took 13 of a possible 15 points over their last five matches at Mestalla Stadium, but even those matches are a bit fraudulent as Los Murcelagos boast a +0.67 xG differential across those five contests.

Based on their underlying metrics I just can't trust Valencia at this number.

Levante

Levante are lucky not to be in a relegation battle considering how bad they've been defensively. The Granotas allow 1.87 expected goals against per match, which is the worst mark in La Liga and their 4-4-2 formation has consistently left their backline exposed.

If a team is undisciplined in the 4-4-2 it will allow huge pockets of space between the central midfielders and center backs and that's been a huge problem for Levante, who have a -10.69 xG differential playing out of the 4-4-2.

While its all bad news on the defensive front, Levante haven't been terrible offensively, generating 1.29 xG per game. A decent attack combined with a horrible defense has led to a lot of high scoring games for the Granotas, as 59% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Previous Meeting

Valencia won the reverse fixture, 4-2, at Levante back in December. The expected goals report shows that both teams were sloppy defensively and each team had plenty of big chances.

I think you will see a similar type of game this time around, given how bad Levante are defensively.

Analysis

Everything on paper says that Valencia should cruise to a win in this game but, based on my model I only have Valencia as a short favorite:

• Valencia projected odds: -101 (50.34% win probability)
• Valencia projected expected goals: 2.04
• Levante projected odds: +253 (28.29%)
• Levante projected expected goals: 1.47
• Draw projected odds: +368 (21.37%)

My model projects this game for 3.51 expected goals, so I see some value on Over 3 goals at +112.