Lazio vs Bayern Munich Odds
| Lazio Odds | +400 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Bayern Munich is a clear underdog to win the Bundesliga this season now after their 3-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen over the weekend. The German side rolled to 16 points in the Champions League group stage despite their wobble in league form and now have a friendly Round of 16 matchup lined up as Bayern visits the Italian capital on Wednesday to face Lazio.
Lazio has the eighth best non-penalty xG differential in Serie A this season, and their underlying numbers don't come close to comparing to Bayern's gaudy +1.79 xG differential per 90 in the Bundesliga. Regardless of how heavily you weight the Bundesliga vs. Serie A, it's hard to justify Bayern being just a -150 road moneyline favorite.
Read on for my Lazio vs Bayern Munich pick.
Lazio
Lazio's performances in the last month don't look like a team that is about to go toe-to-toe with Bayern on Wednesday, even if the German side enters with shaky form. Lazio has played Napoli, Inter Milan and Atalanta, three top-six teams in Italy in the last month. They managed one total shot on target on those three matches, a penalty against Atalanta once down 3-0.
The defense held up well at home against Napoli, who created nothing in that match but also played without their best two attackers. Lazio had no way to slow down Inter in their matchup, as the Serie A leaders destroyed them in transition and outshot them 23-5 en route to a 3-0 victory.
In the first 87 minutes of Lazio's match against Atalanta two weeks ago, Atalanta attempted 18 shots to three for Lazio. The Italian side grabbed a consolation penalty goal but could barely maintain possession in Atalanta's half of the field for most of the match.
One of the biggest problems for the Lazio attack is not just Sergej Milinkovic-Savic departing the club and the resulting loss of creative productivity, but Ciro Immobile's numbers are also in decline. He has just two non-penalty goals in 12 Serie A 90s. Immobile also has averaged just 0.29 NPxG per match.
Bayern Munich
It's clear from the eye test that Bayern has taken a small step back this season outside of the addition of Harry Kane. Injuries to Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry haven't helped the cause, and this has heaped more and more of the goalscoring production on Kane. The English striker has 24 league goals and is averaging 1.13 xG + xA per 90, so the Bayern attack on paper still looks as good as ever.
The match Saturday at Leverkusen was weird for a few reasons. The primary one was Thomas Tuchel's decision to switch to a back three and cave to Leverkusen's preferred tactical set up. They had just 16 touches in the Leverkusen penalty area, which is the fewest they've managed all season.
Even in that poor performance, Bayern still managed 10 passes into Leverkusen's penalty area. It was their worst attacking game of the season, and that was almost as strong as Lazio's best game. Lazio hasn't managed more than 14 passes into the penalty area in a single match all year. There's some league effects on those numbers, but the Champions League stats paint a clear picture.
Bayern had a vastly superior xG difference once you remove red cards and penalties from the sample. The German side allowed the third-fewest Attacking Penalty Area Touches, and Lazio finished in the bottom eight in Penalty Area Touches for its own attack.
Bayern wasn't as elite at Arsenal, PSG or Manchester City, but they did more than enough to warrant the initial moneyline price before the market steamed hard against them on Sunday.
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Lazio vs Bayern Munich
Prediction
The market stayed pretty solidly around -180 or -190 for this match and even got as high as Bayern -205 on the moneyline. There's been a huge correction over the weekend after the Bayern blowout defeat. We've seen Bayern held under one Expected Goal on three separate occasions this season. Two of those games came against Copenhagen's low block, and the third was a loss to Saarbrucken in the DFB-Pokal.
Bayern has bounced back to create at least two xG in the next match following these flat showings. The German champions have massive advantages in quality all over the pitch. I'll take the discount on them following the loss and back Bayern to win the first leg at Lazio at -185 or better.
Pick: Bayern ML (-185 or better)
