Lazio vs Feyenoord Odds
| Lazio Odds | +160 |
| Feyenoord Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Lazio look to avenge a 3-1 beatdown in Rotterdam just two weeks ago when they take on Feyenoord in the reverse leg in Rome.
The Italian side is once again having a mediocre season in Serie A. Their three biggest matches of the domestic season came against Napoli, Juventus and AC Milan, and in those three matches they failed to create over 1 xG. They got demolished in the first half against Feyenoord in Rotterdam and quite frankly, there really isn't much hope for things drastically changing in this second leg, especially after their poor showing on Friday at Bologna.
Feyenoord were incredible in the first leg at home, constantly forcing Lazio into mistakes in build up play to create direct opportunities in on net. Their performance was symbolic of Arne Slot's aggressive tactics paying off and they have a great chance once again of getting all three points and staying atop the group.
Lazio
Lazio ran into a lot of problems against Feyenoord in Rotterdam and I am not sure they are problems that can be immediately fixed for this match. They got completely overwhelmed by Feyenoord's high press and constantly were turning the ball over in build up play. The problem is because of how Maurizio Sarri wants his team to play, those high turnovers are going to keep happening.
Sarri wants his teams to build out of the back with long sustained possession, using a lot of combination passing move the ball through the opponent's press. The reason they struggled against Feyenoord is because they hadn't seen a press that intense in Serie A this season. Napoli lead Serie A averaging 9.3 high turnovers per 90 minutes, while Feyenoord are averaging 10.6 in the Eredivisie and has 33 through their first three Champions League matches.
The other problem with Lazio is although they are the number one team in Serie A in progressive passes and dribbles, they aren't turning many into high quality chances. Lazio are only averaging 1.03 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 11th in Serie A. They also are not utilizing the wide areas of the pitch, as Sarri wants them to try to play through the middle as Lazio have completed the fewest crosses of anyone in Serie A into the penalty area.
Lazio especially struggle when they have to play good competition. In Serie A this season, they've played Napoli, Juventus and AC Milan, and in those three matches they've only created a combined 1.7 xG.
Feyenoord
Slot's tactics at Feyenoord are super aggressive and were the reason why they won the match against Lazio. Out of possession, Slot implements an aggressive high press where the fullbacks will often push forward leaving Feyenoord with a back three. There are often times you will see Feyenoord pressing with a front four in their 4-2-3-1 system going man for man against a back three or a back four. The results speak for themselves and they are prefect against a slow possession build up team like Lazio. Just watch how the first goal happened.
SANTI GIMENEZ MARKS HIS #UCL DEBUT WITH A GOAL. 🇲🇽 pic.twitter.com/97efUoDpyx
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 25, 2023
In possession, Feyenoord employ a lot of the same tactics as you would see from Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton. Often times Feyenoord like to implement a box midfield to help them play create overloads in the middle of the pitch and play through the opponent's defensive blocks that way. To do this, they use three man combinations, so whenever someone has the ball in the middle of the pitch, there are three options close by to help outnumber the opposition.
The wingers in this system will also stay wide to get in 1 v 1 situations and drag the opposing defensive block out to create space for runs into the box for their all world striker Santiago Gimenez. There may not be a more in form striker than Gimenez right now in Europe. He was suspended for their first two matches against Celtic and Atletico Madrid, but made his mark in the match against Lazio, scoring twice in his Champions League debut.
Gimenez has 15 goals in 11 matches this year and is averaging 1.10 xG per 90 minutes, which is insane.
Lazio vs Feyenoord
Prediction
Lazio ended up creating 2.3 xG against Feyenoord in the first leg, which is their largest xG output of the season. However, they took two shots for the first 50 minutes of the match and all of their chances, including a penalty, came after Feyenoord were already up 2-0.
image via fbref.com
Lazio are not a team built to play very direct over the opponent's press and be effective in doing so. They are going to try to continue to play out of the back, through the central parts of the pitch, and they will keep turning the ball over, giving Feyenoord easy transition opportunities with a deadly striker making runs off the last line of their defense.
The market hasn't upgraded Feyenoord after the win enough in my opinion. From a mathematical perspective, home field advantage is the Champions League is worth about 35 cents to the moneyline, so flipping the same match from one stadium to the other you would see a 70-cent difference in the moneyline price from the first leg. Feyenoord closed as a -120 favorite in Rotterdam, so they should be around +150, assuming there were no upgrades made given what happened in the first leg.
I was expecting the market to upgrade Feyenoord coming off their dominant performance, but they didn't. Feyenoord are sitting at +170 at bet365 and there is no reason why they shouldn't be a road favorite in Rome.
I project Feyenoord's draw no bet price at -119, so I love the value on their current price of +103.
Pick: Feyenoord – Draw No Bet (+103 via bet365)
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